Hello everyone! I apologize for being gone for so long. Between holidays, fatigue, and just daily life, I’ve not had as much time and energy to devote to writing to you guys! I know, I know, it’s crazy to think other things exist outside of football. I myself have to be reminded of that very fact.

My intention was to do this newsletter sooner, so I could go over some of my hits and misses from the 2025 season before taking my annual break as I prepare for the offseason studies I have lined up. Technically, I’m writing this right now during my scheduled “break,” but it would be a disservice to all of you if I left you in the dark without explaining why I wasn’t writing you!

I’ll get into some more details below, and please, please scroll down and read those details, but just know that while my target return to writing is February, that is going to be a crazy month for my family! So if I am a little spotty, I just ask for grace and understanding, and I will be doing my best to get a newsletter out to you weekly.

But for now, I’ll be going through some of my hits and misses from my preseason takes, as well as recapping some of the studies I did and how things turned out once the dust settled from the 2025 season.

🧊 Out of any position group this year, quarterback was my worst. My sleepers were…less than stellar. None of Justin Fields, Bryce Young, or Cam Ward did much of anything for us for fantasy. Heck Fields was benched! No victory laps coming here, I’m starting off great! 😅

My fades weren’t too bad. Quarterback scoring was down this year overall, and my fades, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff, both saw their production dip in 2025. Baker’s PPG dropped from 22.5 in 2024 to 16.6 in 2025! Jared Goff went down 1.9 FPPG compared to 2024.

🔎 I did a study on QB touchdown regression and its effect on efficient passers year-over-year. Baker, Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow were all regression candidates. Jackson experienced a significant drop in PPG, from 25.6 to 17.1 in 2025. Burrow himself saw a 5.1 FPPG drop. 😲

However, I would be remiss if I didn’t give those numbers context! Both quarterbacks saw a drop in pass attempts per game in 2025 compared to their 2024 numbers. Lamar did see a dip in pass TD rate, but it was still a ridiculous 7%. Most of his drop in fantasy production has to do with a lack of rushing. It was the worst per-game rushing numbers of his career, and it wasn’t even close. Burrow also had a fairly sizeable rushing dip, believe it or not, but much of his struggle is due to lower passing volume. 📉

Jacorey Croskey-Merritt was the best running back on Washington’s roster this season. I agree with that. However, the team clearly didn’t trust him with a full-time role unless they had to. I was a voice that was leaning towards caution, trying to slow the hype train down. I mentioned that only four seventh-round RBs have scored more than 7+ PPG as a rookie since 1990. Bill now makes that five with 8.3 PPR PPG, but he had 10 games below 6 PPR points and was largely unusable. I can’t fully take a victory lap here, but overall, I don’t think it was a bad take.

⚡ I had Omarion Hampton as a running back sleeper, citing the odds of first-round rookie RBs having a 50-50 shot of finishing as an RB1. His injury prevented that outcome, finishing as the RB13 in PPG. From a PPG perspective, he beat his ADP of RB17, but of course, that only helped us so much from a season-long perspective.

I had plenty of bad takes in 2025, Kaleb Johnson being by far my worst. I advocated for him at his RB27 cost, and he came nowhere close to it. I’m extremely sorry for that one. ⚫

🦁 Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook were both candidates for touchdown regression this season. And while I didn’t say not to draft them, and they did regress in the rate they scored touchdowns, but they still had incredible seasons, and I want to make that clear. Cook actually went from scoring a rushing touchdown once every 12.9 carries to once every 25.8, which is in line with my offseason study. Cook was able to keep up his value due to having nearly 102 additional carries. Gibbs, meanwhile, I’m convinced, is not of this planet.

🐈‍⬛ Am I happy that Tetairoa McMillan came through for me after a slow start? 100% yes. The talented receiver out of Arizona led all rookie receivers and tight ends in receiving yards and touchdowns, bested only by Tyler Warren and Harold Fannin in receptions.

🟡 In my sleepers article, I referenced that I would rather have McMillan than DK Metcalf, who were going close together in drafts, with McMillan slightly cheaper. Metcalf finished just 0.1 FPPG ahead of McMillan. All things considered, McMillan turned out to be a slightly better value and was available for more games.

But beyond the McMillan vs Metcalf discussion, I also cited how DK was struggling to be anything better than a low-end WR2, and that turned out to be the case yet again. He was the WR23 in PPG, not bad. Honestly, given that his ADP was WR21, he met ADP expectations.

Before we move on, here’s something fascinating I found about DK’s season. His 12.5 FPPG was worse than last year (12.7), and yet he finished higher in PPG rank. In 2024, DK’s 12.7 PPG was good for WR33 among WRs with 7+ games played. Meanwhile, in 2025, he finished as the WR23 in PPG despite dropping to 12.5 FPPG. Receiving production as a whole was down so much in 2025 that DK rose up the ranks despite having worse fantasy production.

🐴 Quickly, since we spent a lot of time on DK, I had Josh Downs as a sleeper, and he did not come through for me. Like a true truther, I still believe he has the talent, but his usage has just not done him any favors. Marvin Mims was a receiver who got some year-3 buzz, but I was not buying in after doing an offseason study about end of year breakouts. One that I will be sharing with you this offseason yet again. 🐴

🧀 I called out Tucker Kraft as a sleeper this season, and he was so close to being such a great hit. Sadly, we were robbed of that full-on breakout due to injury.

Jonnu Smith was another tight end I got right heading into this season, advocating you, the readers, to avoid him at his ADP of TE14. He was the TE39 in PPG among TEs with 8+ games played and the overall TE35.

🔵 As for my misses, Theo Johnson was on the edge of being undrafted this year, sitting at TE38 in ADP. True, I could take his finish of TE23 in PPG as a win, but I won’t because he could and should have done more with his opportunity. Notably, he was better with Jaxson Dart at the helm than not, but I still hoped for more from Theo.

Fading Travis Kelce was much like my Gibbs and Cooks takes from above. He was drafted as the TE6, and he finished as the TE9 in PPG, so in that instance, I was right. But, “availability is an ability” is something I’ve heard somewhere (and I truly wish I could remember where from!), and Kelce finished as the TE3 overall behind Trey McBride and…Kyle Pitts.

🏈 One of my most fun studies had to do with offensive production. In it, I listed how, on average, the bottom six offenses in any given year generally see a rise in scoring the following season by almost 0.4 TD/Gm. In 2024, those offenses were as follows: Cleveland, New York Giants, Dallas, Las Vegas, New England, Jacksonville. Cleveland and Vegas ended up worse than they were in 2024. Dallas, New England, and Jacksonville saw an increase of at least an offensive TD per game, and the Giants were close behind at 0.88.

Of the top six offenses in 2024, three managed to stay as a Top-10 offense in 2025 in offensive TD/Gm. Two fell into the bottom half of the NFL in offensive production. Those two, unsurprisingly, were Tampa Bay and Washington. 🎖

As I mentioned above, I am taking a break till February. I know you guys only hear from me once a week in your inbox, and I do that out of respect for not flooding your already busy emails, but also to not over-exert myself! This newsletter is not the only writing I do in-season. I do a ton of writing in-season for different sites, and I also take several hours putting in the research for this newsletter each and every week. I need a break! 😩

But while it’s giving me a break from writing, it’s allowing me to devote time to brainstorming, preparing, and organizing the thoughts and data that will be going into all the studies we will get into this offseason. My in-season content is a lot like other sites' content, sleepers, starts, sits, and all, I’ve had several people attest that some of the studies revealed things they hadn’t thought of before. I admit, I enjoy hearing it, but it’s more humbling than anything that my work has been useful for others, helping them to think about the game of fantasy football in ways they hadn’t before. I’m truly grateful for that!

I will be revisiting some of my studies from last offseason, adding some new data to them, and seeing how we can apply what we know to 2026. I will also be adding in a study I was working on over the summer with dynasty startups, and I think it has the potential to be a massive help to dynasty players, especially. 👀

➡ On the personal side of things, my wife and I are expecting a baby! She’s due in February, right around the Super Bowl. I’m hoping our newest little one doesn’t come during the Super Bowl, as my son did, but he at least had the sense to be born during the first half, so dad could watch the second half. So if I miss a newsletter, I might be busy, exhausted, or both. I just ask your forgiveness! I will not have forgotten you, I promise. I am just a bit tied up. 😉 Sometimes, you just gotta enjoy life and all of its joys, even when it doesn’t involve football. 🐣

While this might be the last you hear from me for a few weeks, if you’d like to stay in touch or want to talk dynasty fantasy football now that the regular season is over, you are always welcome in the RotoBanter Discord. It’s free, and feel free to invite your friends!

That’s going to do it for today. I know it was a long one. Thanks for everything, and I will see you again soon!