🦅 Since 2014, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles had the fourth-lowest passing attempts per game. Using teams within that sample set with next season data, the bottom five teams in PA/G saw an increase of 6.6 PA/G the next season. The 2023 Titans were the only team that did not see an increase above 5.6 PA/G. An additional 6.6 PA/G means Jalen Hurts would go from 26.4 attempts to 33 attempts per game; put another way, it amounts to 112 additional targets for his receiving options. Fun fact: three of the bottom five teams with next season data in PA/G came from 2022 (the Titans, Bears, and Ravens).

📈 Since 2019, bottom six offensive teams improved their touchdowns per game by an average of 0.38 TD per game the following season. 44% improved by 0.5-1.3 TD per game. The bottom six offenses last year: New York Giants, Dallas, Las Vegas, New England, Jacksonville, and Cleveland.

🤠 Speaking of Dallas, with Micah Parsons now in Green Bay, the Cowboys seem destined to become the NFC version of the Bengals. Since 2019, Dallas as a team has only been below 597 passing attempts once, and that was in 2022 when they had 556 attempts.

Since 2020, the QB1 and QB2 by ADP have averaged the exact same amount of points per game: 22.2. There have only been three players who have been drafted as the QB1 or 2 in that time span: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Going further down the list of QBs in that same time frame, the QB17-20 by ADP has performed better overall than the QB13-16 by ADP, averaging 16.3 vs 15.7 PPG.

🎖 The Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merrit truthers are not going to like this, but I’m not in love with the seventh-round pick in Washington:

Despite being thought of primarily as a pocket passer, Bryce Young ran for 6 rushing touchdowns last year, more than Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. He also put up 249 yards in his 12 starts.

⚔ Jordan Mason was top-14 in Yards After Contact and broken tackles per attempt last year, and he was third in RYOE/Att per Next Gen Stats. Aka, he was very good at getting through contact and getting yards he shouldn’t have gotten, despite facing 8+ defenders in the box 33.3% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL. He should be a fine complement to Aaron Jones.

🏹 While Xavier Worthy can still be a downfield threat, the Kansas City offense completely changed his usage in Weeks 13-17 last year. His ADOT fell down to 5.1 yards, almost mirroring Rashee Rice’s usage during the Chiefs’ first three games, where his ADOT was 5.2. With Rice out for the first six games and the Chiefs having a relatively healthy receiving corps, I expect Worthy to continue filling out Rice’s role with the occasional deep shot.

🤠 The last time we saw CeeDee Lamb share the field with another receiver in their prime was in 2021 with Amari Cooper. Lamb finished as the WR19 that year. And no, I don’t think he’s going to regress down to that level. I just wanted to give you a slight pause for the fun of it. 😉 Since 2021, his lowest target share was 24.4%. If we assume Dallas is likely throwing 600+ times and give Lamb a 26% target share, that still gives him 156 targets. Giving them George Pickens to get around 20% and Jake Ferguson 15% gives them 120 and 90 targets, respectively. And that still leaves a 39% market share (234 total targets) to be divided among everyone else.

🦬 The highest target share for any Buffalo Bill pass catcher last year was Khalil Shakir with a 20.2% target share since QB Josh Allen spread the ball around. Keon Coleman came in at an 11.5% share, and I think he could get 100+ targets in his second season. It’s also noteworthy that Allen’s passing attempts fell from an average of 591 from 2020-2023, all the way down to 483 in 2024. Coleman needs to work on some things, but with a potential year 2 bump combined with a potential increase in passing attempts has me wondering if he can get into WR2-3 territory this season.

🏈 Here’s a fun kicker stat for those of you who are in leagues with kickers. I won’t take full credit for this; I believe Ian Hartitz mentioned on the Fantasy Life podcast that you need to target kickers in “mid” offenses. So I got curious and wanted to see some numbers behind that. Last year, 30% of the top 10 kickers in fantasy came from top-4 offenses. 60% were in offenses that ranked 10th-22nd in total scoring. Only one kicker came from an awful offense (Dan Carlson of LV). If you look at just the Top-5 scoring kickers, all of them came from offenses ranked 11th-22nd in scoring. Of course, I’m using a very small sample here, and I could take a look into that further in the future, but it seems Hartitz is on to something!