It’s tight end time! The final skill position we’re going to discuss is not something I’ve spent a lot of time studying this offseason, but I think I need to look more into it in the following months. There’s so much content out there about running backs and wide receivers that there could be some tight end gems that are waiting to be discovered!

But, while I haven’t done much on the subject leading up to this point, it doesn’t mean I’ve done nothing. 😉

Because this week, I took a quick peek at tight end breakouts among every tight end who was drafted or played their first season since 2017 through 2024 (which includes UDFA’s and such). I defined a breakout season as the first year a TE hits 10.5 PPR PPG, which is about a Top-10 TE or better season. I debated 10 PPG, but then you start getting into TE2 territory, and that’s not helping your roster as much.

In those years, we have a sample set of 18 breakout TEs; a little more than two breakouts per year.

It may come as little surprise that 13 of the 17 tight ends who broke out were Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks. Every tight end who broke out as a rookie was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Of the total nine first-round tight ends in the sample, four of them broke out in year one or year two. David Njoku took his sweet time, breaking out in year seven. Kyle Pitts narrowly missed the cutoff, having 10.4 points in his rookie year. Dalton Kincaid also put up nearly 10 PPG his rookie year, and he still fits the mold for a potential year-three breakout. Noah Fant and Hayden Hurst are the other first-round TEs who didn’t quite get there.

While most tight ends who broke out were top-end prospects, 24% were Day 3 prospects or UDFA’s. Had I lowered the benchmark to 10 PPG, we would have seen the aforementioned Kyle Pitts as a rookie breakout, but he’s a first-rounder. Joining him in the honorable mentions would be two fourth-round prospects: Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson. That gives me some additional hope for a guy we will mention here in a moment.

Much of what we’ve looked at so far has been descriptive, but not predictive, at least at face value. How can we utilize this data to identify potential breakouts in 2025? Well:

What’s important to note with this data is that while helpful and interesting, I’ve not done a complete and thorough study on this topic. It’s definitely something I want to dive into more this offseason, especially with the strong 2025 TE class offering a lot of talent and the 2023-2024 classes also providing some potential second or third-year breakouts.

But I haven’t had the chance to see how many tight ends fit the Day 1 or 2 draft capital, 6-8+ PPG, and were in the early years of their careers, and didn’t break out. What I’ve been able to study has focused on the guys who succeeded. Even so, while we don’t know the full hit rate of the criteria yet, we do know what has worked in the past. And that, I believe, is useful information.

My source for ADP information is the FantasyPros consensus ADP. Now let’s get to it!

I get Tucker Kraft is being drafted as a TE1 right now in 12-man leagues. But I wanted to highlight him here for several reasons. For one, his yards per route run was second best in the NFL among TEs last year at 2.46. He was also second best in yards of separation and xYAC/R according to Next Gen Stats (expected yards after catch per reception). For those unfamiliar with the xYAC/R stat, it essentially says that Kraft was elite at gaining more yards after the catch than he should have.

Remember the takeaways about breakout TEs? Kraft is a third-year TE drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft. He also put up 9.6 PPG last year, on the high end of the pre-breakout PPG. At an ADP of TE11, I’m taking the shot that he can achieve much more than that this year.

Njoku has been hampered by uncertainty for much of the offseason, and even though Joe Flacco has been named the starter QB, that’s likely temporary. So there is uncertainty in Njoku’s profile. But, there was a stretch last year from Weeks 7-16 when Njoku was the overall TE4 in PPG. But during that time, he had the trio of Jamies Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and the ghost of Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball.

In 2024, from Weeks 7-17, he was the overall TE2 in PPG with PJ Walker, Watson, DTR, and Joe Flacco, who is his current signal caller, at QB. It’s easy to forget about veterans, especially ones who are in questionable situations. But Njoku has the talent to come through, and at least to begin the year, should be peppered with targets alongside Jerry Jeudy.

I told you guys above that the honorable mentions of Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson would offer some additional hope for a player. That man is Theo Johnson. Had Otton and Ferg been part of the breakout sample, we would have had three TEs come from the fourth round (the other name is Dalton Schultz). I’m betting on Johnson to become the next man up.

Johnson started off 2024 slowly, but in his final five games before suffering a season-ending injury, he averaged 9.1 PPG. He has another aspect to his game that is essential for tight ends who succeed in fantasy: athleticism. He had the best athletic score in the 2024 class and seventh-best among all TEs in PlayerProfiler’s database.

Honorable mentions: Tyler Warren, Dalton Kincaid, Isaiah Likely, Chig Okonkwo. PS - I love Warren; he’s also everyone’s favorite “sleeper,” so I wanted to highlight some different players. 😉

Even at the discount of TE6 by ADP, I am scared of drafting Kelce. Maybe he’s in for a bounce-back tour, but going into his age-36 season, I have my doubts. Across nearly his entire career, Kelce has averaged around 8-9 yards per target. Last season, it dropped down to 6. He had a career-worst passer rating when targeted of 83.6 (which, to be honest, isn’t bad at all, it’s just not at ELITE Kelce levels). His yards per route run were the worst since 2017 (farthest back the data goes that’s available to me). It’s terrifying fading the man who has been the Lewis Hamilton of tight ends after dominating the space for many years, but it looks like he’s on the decline.

This is the second week in a row I’m fading a Steeler and hyping up a Brown. I promise this is not homer-ism! Jonnu isn’t going at a bad price as the TE14 and he could easily be the No.2 target behind DK Metcalf, but there are a couple things that dissuade me from him in 2025.

First off, while it’s true that his old coach, Arthur Smith, brought him to Pittsburgh, the downside is that Jonnu is in an Arthur Smith offense. It’s very run-heavy, and, to my recollection anyway, uses a lot of 12 personnel, meaning Pat Friermuth, the Steelers’ other capable TE, will also see his fair share of playing time. With Smith as his OC or HC, Jonnu has averaged 7.7 fantasy PPG. That’s not going to cut it.

Second, while he did share the field with the likes of AJ Brown, late-career Delanie Walker, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London during his other tenures with Smith, don’t forget Metcalf and Friermuth are no slouches either. Jonnu might be the No.2 target in the Steelers offense, but he’s sharing the field with an alpha WR and a talented TE. He’s just not someone I’ve been targeting in drafts, even at his reduced price.

That’s all I have for this week! I’ll see you again soon!