Last year we saw some incredible running back play. Saquon Barkley put up his best fantasy performance since his rookie year (in some scoring formats, even better than his rookie year). Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson made the leap from high-end running backs to absolutely elite ones. Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry. Kyren Williams and James Cook scored at insane rates.

Who could forget this?

And then I think back to 2023 and De’Von Achane’s efficiency and Raheem Mostert’s scoring prowess. It had me wondering, when a running back has an especially efficient season, how does he fare the following year? We all have heard about touchdown regression, outlier seasons in yards per carry, and the like, but how much do hyper-efficient running backs actually regress, if at all?

So as in all of our other studies, we need to define our parameters. First, I said a running back needed to have at least 90 attempts and average 5 yards per carry. Second, I wanted them to be efficient in other ways as well, and for this study, I focused on first downs per attempt and attempts per touchdown. Seeing why I would look into scoring efficiency should be fairly obvious, but why first downs? Well, three-and-outs aren’t helpful for fantasy. The more first downs a team has, the more chances to score and the more chances a running back has to do his damage. First downs keep the drive alive and they’re good at getting them. It’s yet another way of measuring a player’s usefulness to their particular team.

I took the average attempts, first downs, and touchdowns of the last three seasons among every running back with at least a carry during that time (quite a few) and ended up with a 22% first down rush rate (1DR from here on) and 33.1 Att/TD. The better a running back is at getting first downs, the higher the 1DR number. For example, 50% 1DR means they averaged a first down every two attempts and a 10% 1DR means they only got a first down every ten attempts. And for Att/TD, it’s the opposite effect, fewer carries per touchdown means they score more often.

🗒 If you’re sharp, you noticed that while our main study sample has to meet certain criteria, especially the 90 carry minimum, I don’t do that with the league average above. That’s because I want to compare efficient backs who have a decent workload against running backs as a whole so I could establish what exactly “efficient” meant.

And just so that our parameters weren’t too constrictive, I established multiple ways for running backs to qualify as efficient. If you’re still with me, good for you! I promise I will give a TLDR in a moment. But the main criteria I set out were:

The TLDR of all this process and study notes is this: every RB needed at least 90 attempts and an average of 5 yards per carry. Then they could either be efficient in both 1D/Att and Att/TD OR be hyper-efficient in one of those two additional criteria.

We end up with 24 individual seasons of running backs who meet these criteria from 2014 to 2023 where we can examine what happened to them the following season. Once we get some observations, we will apply what we learn to the 2024 running backs who fit our criteria. ⬇

I had some serious flashbacks and early memories of playing fantasy football when first looked at this list of efficient running backs. Among them are guys like Bilal Powell, Jeremy Hill, Ryan Matthews, Ronald Jones, Mike Gillislee, and Philip Lindsay. Of course, studs like Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliot, Aaron Jones, and LeSean McCoy are part of the sample too. 🦅

How did running backs fare? Well, as you might have guessed because of my foreshadowing, it’s not all that great. That’s not to say they were bad for fantasy, but many of them saw a significant drop in production from year to year. Only one running back of the 24, Jahmyr Gibbs, was able to increase his efficiency in all three main efficiency categories: yards per attempt, 1DR, and Att/TD. Derrick Henry was the only other back who increased his efficiency in two of the three.

In total, Henry and Gibbs were the only running backs who increased their YPC. They and D’Andre Swift were the only three to increase their 1DR. Only nine of the 24 running backs improved their Att/TD. Among those who improved in Att/TD, they averaged right around a 10% increase, with Gus Edwards being the lone outlier. From 2019 to 2020, he improved his Att/TD by 64%!  📈

But on average and as a whole, we saw a decrease in efficiency year over year. Here is the total year-over-year change.

🤯 I was shocked at just how much our sample fell off in the touchdown department. A 50% decrease is insane. And let’s not act like a 16.8% and 16.2% decrease is anything light either. The best way to put that in perspective is to apply it. 🤯

Well, for starters, let’s say you have a 16% decrease in your YPC without increasing your carries to compensate. A rusher who ran for 1,000 yards is now looking at 840. They’re also looking at fewer scoring opportunities as well because of that. So a 1,000-yard, 8-TD season starts to look more like an 840-yard, 4-TD season. It’s not nearly as appealing.

We had four running backs achieve “efficient” status in 2024: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving. While I’m at it, I’d like to throw in some honorable mentions, Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, and James Cook. 🦬

Let’s apply what we just learned to Saquon’s insane 2024 season and project what 2025 might potentially look like based on our findings right now. Given the same workload (which based on history is already unlikely), he would drop from 2,005 rushing yards and 13 TDs to 1,684 and 7. That’s still an amazing year, but assuming he keeps his receiving work the same, he would drop to the RB6. 

Let’s also pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. He managed to be our unicorn and increase his efficiency year over year, but can he really do that again? Using the same process he used for Saquon, Gibbs would drop from being the RB1 (if you include Week 18) to the RB6, much like Saquon. Poor Bucky Irving would drop from the RB13 to the RB21.

Now, am I saying you should avoid drafting these guys? Of course not. Saquon, Gibbs, Henry, and Irving are all very good players and should be seen as such. What I am saying is that without a workload increase, which is a tall task for several on this list and the honorable mentions, we are likely in for a “down year”. That is, more accurately, a less efficient one. 

Fantasy players often get caught up with what was and will copy-paste that into the new season and assume what was then will be now. The purpose of this study is not to scare you from drafting efficient running backs. They are efficient because they are good at what they do. The purpose is to merely warn you that assuming a repeat of the previous season’s result is a tall task.

Draft good players because they are good players, but keep in mind that it’s very hard to repeat high efficiency. Set level expectations for players and that will keep you grounded during fantasy drafts. 💪

That’s all for today, thanks for reading and I will see you next week!