2025 Offseason Study Highlights, Part 1

Since I made the switch to a new style of content back in February, we’ve seen a lot. The impact of draft capital on players, when do players keep on chugging after their breakout, team scoring regression, and a lot more. Heck, we looked at if it’s possible to go Bully-TE in dynasty. Draft season is fast approaching, and we need to make sure we remember what we’ve learned. For the next two weeks, that’s exactly what we will be doing. I’m breaking things up into two parts so as not to overwhelm you or myself, because it can be a lot of content! While I can’t go into every detail of every study like I have in the past in this type of review, what I will do is mention the findings and applications, as well as provide links to the relevant articles so you can see them in all their fullness and glory.

In August, despite being a study-oriented newsletter, I plan on switching primarily to in-season content. I’ll be sharing more of my own thoughts once the regular season begins, and with so much ground to cover between games, I can’t promise I'll be able to delve into studies as often as I have this offseason. However, never say never. I might surprise you. 😉 

So, what have we learned this offseason, and how can we apply it in 2025? Well, for starters:

Sometimes, breakouts are fakeouts

In Ballout or Fallout, we discussed what positive indicators we should look for after players have second-half breakouts. When do those players stick, and when do they fall off? We examined rookie and second-year players who started the year down the order but saw a significant rise in points in the back half of the year. They had to start outside of the Top-20 in PPG and finish inside the Top-36. Players who fit that category in 2024 were Xavier Worthy, Marvin Mims, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jalen McMillan. Basically, you had to play in the AFC West or in Florida to qualify.

➡️ Regardless of whether a player broke out as a rookie or not, rookie season stats were extremely telling. A good mark for a receiver to hit, regardless of breakout year, was 70 targets, 46 rec, and 580 rec yds. Worthy, McConkey, and BTJ hit all of them and, in most cases, well exceeded them. Mims and McMillan weren’t as successful in their rookie years. Players with rookie year stats like those two generally don’t hit even a WR3 season in the two years following their breakout campaign.

Streaming rookie quarterbacks

When observing rookie QB improvement from the first half to the second half of the season, we saw that 65% of rookies sample saw an improvement in PPG, even if by only a small amount. But what was more interesting is that in the second half of seasons there was a big increase in ceiling games from rookie QBs. In the first half of a given season, they scored 24+ points only 10% of the time. In the second half, it jumped up to over 17%. Put another way, it went from 1-in-10 to 1-in-6. The chances of a veteran, non-elite (top-6) QB, hitting that same 24-point mark? 13%, less than the rookies. 🤔 

This info is primarily useful in terms of streaming quarterbacks or for teams who grab two QBs, which has become more and more popular. It’s not always helpful for drafts unless you aim to take an upside swing on a rookie, especially if you like them and think their second-half schedule is easy.

How draft capital impacts players

🔎 We took a peek at the impacts of draft capital in the weeks before the NFL Draft. Unsurprisingly, Cam Ward was selected first overall, and the good news is that of the other 8 QBs selected first overall, six have had a QB1 season in their career. The other two are Caleb Williams and Bryce Young, who can do so this season. 

Tyler Shough is in the unique position as a potential starter from Day 1 as a Round 2 selection, but of the QBs selected in Round 2 since 2014, only Hurts has surpassed more than 13.6 FPPG when given the shot to start.

Jaxon Dart’s time will come, but I think he’s more someone you can pick up as a streamer. Which leads me to Cleveland. I have no idea what’s going on, but I imagine Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders will start at some point. Sanders has a huge mountain to climb to fantasy relevance, as the only rookies worth starting taken in Round 5 or later since 2014 were Gardner Minshew and Brock Purdy. 🛑 

We’re also about to see the Day 3 running back thought process tested in 2025, as historically, they haven’t done well. Only 26% of Round 4 running backs since 2018 have had an RB3 season or better in their career, much less in their rookie season. Day 3 as a whole only sees a 17% hit rate. But we saw Bayshul Tuten, Cam Skattebo, Trevor Etienne, Woody Marks, Jarquez Hunter, and Dylan Sampson all go in Round 4, and let’s not just brush all those guys off because they were drafted on Day 3.

What can rookie receivers do for you?

Rookie receivers need to be thought of as your WR2 at best, but preferably as your WR3+. In 2024, this thought process worked out well for fantasy players who drafted the likes of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, and Ladd McConkey. However, all anyone can seem to remember is being burned by Marvin Harrison Jr. Had his ADP been more in line with rookies in the past and not steamed up to incredible expectations, we likely wouldn’t have cared that he finished as a WR3.

What’s interesting is that while fantasy PPG and NFL draft capital follow each other on a general line, what’s even more predictable than PPG is volume. Earlier-drafted players generally receive more opportunities to see the field and produce. When targeting rookie WRs in drafts, the earlier they were selected in the real draft, the better. 📈 

RB efficiency deficiency

Running backs coming off of highly efficient years typically have a bad following season. I defined an efficient season as a running back having 5+ YPC on at least 90 attempts, as well as a first down rate of 25% (aka, getting a first down every fourth rush), and scoring a TD at a rate of 28 Att/TD. For reference, the league average over 2022-24 is 22% 1D rate and 33 Att/TD.

After having an efficient year, running backs see a YPC drop of 17%, a 1D rate drop of 16%, and a decline in TD rate of over 50%! 🤯 

To put this in perspective, for easy math, let’s say a running back runs for 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. Should this trend hit him, he is looking at 830 yards and 4 scores!

Our efficient runners in 2024? Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving. Honorable mentions go to Kyren Williams, James Cook, and David Montgomery.

Does that mean avoid these players at all costs? No. Those guys are still good! It’s cautioning you to temper expectations and know that while these players are still fine picks, don’t go in expecting that last year’s stats will be this year’s production.

That is going to do it for the first part of our offseason in review. Of course, there is a lot more to explore on the site with a full article on each of the subjects we’ve discussed here (and more!). Just go to the RotoBanter webpage and surf to your heart’s content!

Also, please feel free to join the free RotoBanter Discord server! I’d love to see you there!