Rookie WRs: Immediate Impact & Fantasy Potential

We’ve done studies on how draft capital can impact a player’s NFL career. Some might have taken some time to hit (Hunter Renfrow, Darnell Mooney, Jauan Jennings), and others hit immediately (Malik Nabers, Ja’Marr Chase, Ladd McConkey).

Even so, it’s not like players who are drafted high always hit immediately, and players who are drafted late don’t always take years to develop (Amon-Ra St.Brown for example). But I wonder, what is the immediate impact we can expect rookies can make based on draft capital? Not what can they do in a couple of years what can they do now? In redraft, the mantra is always about grabbing rookies for the back half of the year when the game starts to slow down for them. In dynasty, we’re worried about the long-term aspect, so some contending teams often opt to trade away developing rookies in favor of the stars of now, while rebuilding teams want production down the road.

There’s a great amount of give and take going on with rookie receivers depending on the format you play on or the fantasy team makeup. So what can we expect for rookies for the here and now? What if you’re a contending dynasty team but you don’t want to pass up on a potential stud? What if a rookie falls in a redraft league? What can you expect from your investment? 💰️ 

Study Parameters

➡️ First and foremost, we have to define what we are looking at. As should be apparent, we are looking at rookies, and in this case, every rookie drafted from 2018-2024. I debated refining it further, say taking out guys who had fewer than “x” amount of targets. But that would fight against the purpose of this study. Some guys, like Jameson Williams, miss most of their rookie season due to injury, and you could argue that it throws off the sample because you’d expect them to be involved otherwise. That’s not the case for a lot of the lower-drafted guys. They simply don’t get the opportunity. I couldn’t justify filtering out some of the late-round samples because of one or two early-round outliers.

Second, we’re looking at every receiver drafted actually played receiver in the NFL. Not every receiver drafted in the NFL draft ends up playing receiver at the NFL level, and not every receiver drafted ends up seeing the field. But, if they were part of this sample, it would actually help our draft capital case even further. 🔎 

So to put it simply and briefly, we are looking at every receiver drafted from 2018-2024 who played receiver at the NFL level in their rookie year. In total, we have 205 guys to look at. 

The Findings

Before you get to the chart below, I want to make you aware: this is just a chart of rookie season numbers. It is not an indictment on players or saying that Day 1 or Day 2 receivers are bad bets for fantasy long-term. That’s not what this chart is showing. Players take time to develop, and not everyone has a Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson type of rookie season. It doesn’t show how well a player has done at any point in their career. If you want that, I do have an article with that info. These are purely rookie season numbers.

In 2024, 15 PPR PPG was a mid-range WR2. 12 PPG is around WR3 territory. 10 PPG is in the WR4 range. It is very hard for any rookie to get to that 15+ category, as you can tell. Not only that, but only two non-first-round picks got there, Puka Nacua and Ladd McConkey. ⚡️ 

But while seeing it in a table is nice, here is the same data, but instead of a draft round, it's the actual exact selection (pick 23, pick 105, pick 211, etc.) of a certain receiver and their rookie year PPG plotted in a scatter plot.

When you think about it, it makes sense: good players are usually drafted first. Good players usually rack up fantasy points. But you know what the key to fantasy points is right?

🔈️ Volume. Lots of it. And based on draft capital volume is actually more predictable than fantasy points. 🔈️ 

I know I’m about to repeat myself but in a nerdier fashion, but R² for volume is actually higher than the R² for PPG based on draft capital. NFL teams are eager to see their investment pay off and are thus more willing to give them as many chances as possible to do so. Of course, a receiver must run a route, get open, and get targeted by a QB, so there are many factors at play. But, to do any of that, they have to be on the field.

So What Now?

It is very hard for a rookie receiver to have a massive season. We’ve been blessed in recent years with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. who have all had amazing seasons in their first year. We’ve seen Day 3 breakouts of Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St.Brown. 🦁 

But what’s important to note is that while those things are great, that isn’t the norm. Most rookies take time to develop and put up great seasons. So for redraft leagues, if you’re looking at a rookie receiver, keep in mind when and where they were drafted, and landing spot plays a part too. You need to be thinking of said rookie as your WR2 at best, but likely your WR3. 

Case in point, many people, including myself, made the mistake of drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. as their WR1 in some leagues, and that was an epic failure for fantasy. In terms of rookies, it actually wasn’t all that bad. He should have a productive career, but his 11.6 PPG was not what you’d want from a fantasy WR1.

Had he been my WR2 or 3, there’s no problem. But the issue was you had to spend insane draft capital to get him for fantasy in redraft. So that is something to keep in mind (btw, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were the WR24 and 49 in ADP in 2024).

For dynasty leagues, if you are a contender, you have to make the decision: is my team good enough that I can take on a rookie and potentially have him sit and develop, or do I need those points now? In some cases that decision is easy, you draft the high-end prospects like Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan without skipping a beat. But what if you are wondering about guys like Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden, or Tre Harris? That is up to your team's makeup. If you have the depth, then take on the rookie. If you need that one final piece, it might be more advantageous to trade your pick for known veteran production.

I haven’t really covered rebuilds up to this point because when you’re rebuilding, you’re trying to acquire as many potential high-end assets as possible and you have the ability to sit back and watch. Of course, you still want to make sure your team will compete at some point, you can’t develop forever, but you do have more wiggle room.

And they won’t develop unless they’re on the field. 🏈 Yes, we want fantasy points, but we need volume to get there. Forgive me if bringing up volume seems a little redundant, but I initially brought it up to drive home the point: earlier draft players get more chances to produce. Plain and simple. We all have our Day 3 darlings in the draft, but they are a shot in the dark. The best way to accumulate value for your team is to draft players who are going to see the field. I get that it might sound elementary, but we often need to be reminded about things like this because the human mind tends to focus on the ideal hypothetical (“imagine if THIS happens, then…”) and the outlier, but not as much on the realistic.

Stay grounded, keep your head down, and grind. Best of luck in your rookie drafts and I will see you next week!