How Draft Capital Shapes Fantasy Success, Part 2

What’s up everyone!

The NFL draft is next week! Between last week and now, my plan is to get you all up to speed with exactly how draft capital effects fantasy relevant positions. Everyone has their favorite sleeper running back and receiver, or for the IDP guys out there I’m sure there’s a line backer you can’t wait to see drafted (I’ve had those too, believe me!).

But don’t let your hype control you. NFL teams tell us a lot with their selection process. When a player falls, it says a lot, but it doesn’t mean much when a player is a steep riser. I’ve heard it said “It only takes one team to fall in love with a player, but 32 teams to cause a fall.”

Tutu Atwell and Andy Isabella were insane risers. But guys like Jermaine Burton and Troy Franklin fell. Though they’ve only played a year, for one of them it looks like his career is over.

I wasn’t intending to go off on a tangent for draft risers and fallers, but here we are. 😆 The point is, watch where your favorite reciever is drafted, especially if they fall. Draft capital tells us a lot, let’s see just how much it does. ➡️ 

The Study

For this study, we will look at every receiver drafted since 2019. Why 2019? That data was readily available to me because of my S240 model, which, if you want to hear more about it, pop in the RotoBanter Discord! I post stuff about the WRs and RBs in this years class (and previous years!), often with insights from the model. I should also mention that our sample does include the 2024 receivers, so they only have one season of production to go off of and that might hurt some prospects (say, Keon Coleman) but I also wanted to highlight the immediate potential that top selections possess, so I left them in.

In total, we have 192 receivers. I have listed them where a player just has to achieve a single WR1, 2, or 3 season since being drafted in order to count in those columns. So a player might be awful for most of their career but still have a WR3 season in one of them, congrats they made the count as a WR3! Here’s the snapshot of how receivers turned out by round:

Round 1 talents end up about how we would expect, they’re usually the best bets to produce for fantasy, and the results show just that.

😢 The one’s I can confidently say are misses are guys like: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, N’Keal Harry, Khadarius Toney, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks. Then there are others who could improve the R1 numbers: Quentin Johnston, Ricky Pearsall, Rome Odunze, and Xavier Legette.

What’s also important to note, is that a lot of Day 1 talents produce very early in their careers. Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr, and Justin Jefferson all produced WR1 numbers in thier first year (all happened to go to LSU). Others like CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all had a WR2 season or better within their first two seasons. 🚀 

Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) gets a little dicey, but the hitrates are still fairly good. Having a good grip on prospects will help you avoid some of the misses. I will admit the third round hitrate, or lack thereof, surprised me.

I’m going to lump Day 3 prospects into one big group here, despite having them broken down by round in the graphic above. It’s not pretty for them. A total of 101 receivers were drafted on Day 3 since 2019, and only three have had at least one WR1 season. Those three are Amon-Ra St.Brown, Puka Nacua, and Hunter Renfrow. If you expand the parameter from WR1 to having at least one WR3 season, then there are only 6 (including the three names above) among the Day 3 selections. 

🔎 What’s interesting to note is that among the wideouts drafted in the sixth and seventh round, only one of fifty-eight ever has put up a WR3 season or better, Jauan Jennings. However, I would not be surprised if you told me Devaughn Vele or Demario Douglas would be joining him on that list in 2025. Ok, maybe a little, but they are solid players who I think will have good NFL careers.

So, what now?

Well, first and foremost, Day 1 wide receivers are great bets. So are Day 2 wideouts. ✅ 

Third, it’s tough to bet on Day 3 guys. Malik Washington was one of my favorite receivers coming out of college last year. I thought he did a lot of things well. But, not only did he go to the Dolphins who have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but he was a fifth-round selection. His chances of becoming much of anything for fantasy are slim. And that’s the reality of most of these players. Usually, these players are selected later because they simply aren’t in the upper tier of prospects. Teams don’t have a lot invested in them, so it doesn’t hurt them much if they don’t see the field much.

One more thing I would like to note, running backs, at least from what I have studied, hit better than same day wide recievers. 🤔 

Usually, running backs that are selected on Day 1 are coming into a situation condusive to fantasy production. There also happens to be fewer of them compared to receiver, which does impact the hitrates to an extent. Either way, a running back is largely given work, a receiver has to earn it. So that’s part of the reason running backs hit at a higher rate than same day receivers.

However, in rookie drafts for dynasty leagues and redraft leagues this summer, if you are choosing between a Day 2 receiver and a Day 3 running back, choose the reciever. I’m likely not the first one you’ve heard mention this, JJ Zachariason does all the time in his podcast. If you’re choosing between a Day 1 reciver and a Day 2 running back, the upside is with the reciever. You are more likely to get a WR1 season than a RB1 season between those two players.

Basically, comparing identical days? Advantage running back. Comparing later day running back to earlier day receiver? Advantage receiver. Of course, that is the 10,000 foot view and you should always consider team context, the player himself, etc. But in general, that is a good rule to follow.

That’s all for this week, the next time you hear from me, I will be taking a pause from studies and will be giving you my first round reactions!