Ballout or Fallout?

The 2025 NFL Combine just finished up last weekend. Everyone is obsessed with the new incoming rookies. And rightfully so. Quarterback is by far the weakness of the draft for fantasy purposes, but this is an amazing class at running back, has solid WR options, and superb tight ends.

In fact, the running back class is so good that my highest graded back from my production model in the 2023 class would be the RB6 this year. My RB3 would be the RB10 in this year’s class, and there are still some guys I have yet to prospect!

But we aren’t going to talk about the 2025 rookies today. Actually, we aren’t talking about them next week either. We’re waiting until April to really dive into the incoming class.

Instead, we’re going to talk about the 2024 rookies for the month of March. Yes, it’s a lot of rookie talk. But for one, I’ve been gone a while planning a bunch of content out, so I haven’t been able to discuss them till now. Second, with the end of the NFL season comes talk of new rookies, trades (Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk anyone?!), free agency, draft talk, all that. I wanted to reflect on how our 2024 guys did, maybe in ways you hadn’t thought of or in ways you haven’t been able to explore.

For this week, and somewhat next week, we’re going to discuss “ballout or fallout?” A lot of analysts, myself included, talk about how rookies improve over the course of the season and that the second-half of rookie seasons are usually better than the first. And we saw several young guys really step up in the second half of 2024 after showing flashes during their first few games.

But that begs the question: does the breakout stick? Right now, people are asking about Jalen McMillan. He’s been a talking point this offseason in the podcasts I listen to, especially with his touchdown rate being insanely high (might add nearly unrepeatable) and the likelihood Chris Godwin returns. Can he be trusted in 2025?

So I thought, why not look at history and see what we can find out?

What is a second-half breakout?

For the purposes of my study, I needed a receiver to fit these criteria:

1. Is a rookie or second-year wideout.

2. Someone who was outside of the top-20 in PPG in fantasy from Weeks 1-11 (first half) but inside the top-36 receivers from Weeks 12-17/18 (second half) (Week 17 or 18 depending on NFL year).

3. Has an increase of at least 4 PPG from 1H to 2H.

4. If the WR broke out in year 2, he can not have been the WR24 or better in his rookie year.

You might be asking why start off with top-20 and then drop to top-36 as a cutoff? I didn’t want to discredit guys who might have been solid, but really turned their game up a notch, for example: Brian Thomas was the WR11 overall in the first half of 2024, but only the WR24 in PPG. His second half PPG rank was the WR2. So he fits the criteria.

From 2018 to 2023, we have had 20 other receivers fit those criteria. I wanted to see how those receivers did the year following their breakout (Y+1), and where applicable, the year after that (Y+2).

Who were our second-half breakouts in 2024? I’m glad you asked! They are Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and Marvin Mims, along with two names we discussed earlier, Brian Thomas Jr. and Jalen McMillan.

Did their breakout carry over?

Now that we have defined the guys we are looking at, let’s see how well they did following their breakout year. At a glance, 11 of the 20 receivers had at least one WR3 season or better in Y+1 or Y+2. Of those 11, eight had a WR2 season or better, and four were WR1’s.

It should be noted that two of the receivers who didn’t finish as a WR3 were Rashee Rice and Rashid Shaheed. In 2024, Rice was more than likely finishing as a WR1 had he stayed healthy, and Shaheed was the WR22 before getting injured. However, I still think their stats are useful and can help us out as we look at overall trends, so I have left them in the historical sample. I am taking the liberty of putting Rice in a more favorable bucket than Shaheed, which I don’t think is too much of a stretch.

So when adjusting for injuries, a 12 of 20, or a 60% WR3 hit rate, doesn’t tell us or help us much. Surely there is more, right? Yes! Let’s look further. Let’s break down these players into buckets:

• Players who didn’t have a WR3 season in Y+1 or Y+2 regardless of when they broke out (minus Rice, so eight total).

• Players who broke out in Year 2 and had a WR3 season or better in Y+1 or Y+2 (five total).

• Players who broke out in their rookie year and had a WR3 season or better in Y+1 or Y+2 (includes Rice, seven total).

Let’s examine the first group of eight. Six of the eight finished their rookie season with at or fewer than 56 targets, 34 receptions and 488 receiving yards. The only two above those marks were Leviska Shenault and Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks had 39 catches and 581 yards on 58 targets. Shenault was the “true” outlier of the group, with 58 catches and 600 yards on 79 targets (a decent rookie year to be honest).

Next, let’s examine the next group, those who broke out in Year 2 and succeeded. Every receiver in this group had at least 62 targets, 35 receptions, and 584 yards in their rookie year. Gabe Davis had a receiving line of 62-35-599, Hollywood Brown was at 71-46-584. So four of five had at least some combo of at least 71 targets, 46 receptions, and 599 yards.

Lastly, let’s examine the rookies who broke out and succeeded. Every receiver in this group had at least 84 targets, 52 receptions, 680 yards. Six of them had 92+ targets, five had 64+ receptions, and six had 793+ yards.

So, all told, a good mark for your receiver to hit, regardless of whether they broke out as a rookie or second-year player, is about 70+ targets, 46+ receptions, and 580+ yards. It’s not a perfect benchmark (Shenault hit all of those!) but it’s a pretty good one.

What does this mean for our 2024 group?

Information and data are great, but meaningless if not applied. We’ve had some takeaways, now let’s apply them to our new breakout class. Four of the five are rookies, and Mims is the only second-year player. Rookie statistics have been very important to this study, regardless of a rookie or year-two breakout, so let’s examine their rookie stats:

We haven’t talked about touchdowns yet, mostly because they aren’t that much of an indicator, but it does help us see more of a “season-at-a-glance”. What jumps out at you?

For me, the two studs of Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey are sitting pretty in 2025. Xavier Worthy doesn’t quite meet all of the thresholds the other true rookie breakouts met (mainly the yardage total), but he does far exceed the rookie stats for the year 2 breakouts that succeeded and blows the misses out of the water. And while it doesn’t count for the purposes of this study, he had nearly 300 receiving yards in the playoffs and three scores. Worthy is likely going to be just fine.

Now comes the less fun part. I like Marvin Mims. He’s fun. But despite having a second half breakout in 2024, his rookie stats betray him (not to mention even in 2024 he only accumulated 39 receptions for 503 yards on 52 targets). Despite being in an offense that looks to be on the upswing, Mims is at high risk of ending up in the “missed” category. Denver could also add some weapons this upcoming NFL Draft, pushing him further down the pecking order. I’d be wary of drafting Mims in 2025.

That brings us to Jalen McMillan. McMillan was almost non-existent through the first half of 2024, before exploding onto the scene in the final few games averaging 15.1 PPG. His second half of 2024 was amazing, but his season as a whole does ring some alarms. First off, he failed to surpass any of the marks, except for the reception number of Gabe Davis alone, that the guys who “hit” got to. Second, just for some added context, here is a list of guys who caught 6 or more touchdown passes as a rookie with fewer than 45 receptions: Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, Anthony Miller, Gabe Davis, and Mecole Hardman. Maybe McMillan has some Gabe Davis in him, maybe he’s better! But the odds certainly aren’t in his favor.

Moving Forward

Second-half breakouts are always fun and exciting. But it’s important to know what you’re looking for when everything is said and done. It’s often said that the best indicator of future success is past success, and that certainly seems to ring true in our study today.

I highly doubt football evolves into something where we can predict all the outcomes. If we could, it would no longer be fun, and it wouldn't be a sport either. Sometimes you will find receivers who bloom in their third season, like Davante Adams (who would have defied our data sample today!). But other times, you get guys like Dante Pettis, James Washington, or Steven Sims. Sometimes guys like Shenault hit the boxes you want them to hit, but just don’t work out for fantasy.

This newsletter does not define the fate of our 2024 second-half breakouts. So many factors are at play. But, I hope it gives you a good baseline to use in your dynasty league startups, in trades, and in your redraft leagues this summer. See you next week!

P.S. Want to see the full list of all 20 players who were part of this study? Click the banner above, or click here to join the RotoBanter discord to find out!