How Draft Capital Shapes Fantasy Success, Part 1

We all know that draft capital plays a huge part in a player’s path to success in the NFL. Of course, we see players come in all the time as Day 3 draft selections or as a UDFA and have good, long careers. Plenty of guys on defense, or depth options for NFL teams, or special team specialists come from that area of the draft.

But, not to take anything away from those men who have achieved NFL status regardless of how they got there, we’re not concerned with that for fantasy. We’re looking at high-upside, usable options to play. And that usually means high-end real-life guys, not just the roster fillers.

Last week, I didn’t get a newsletter out to all of you, so I’m a bit behind. I had family in town and was involved in a wedding! Understandably, I was a bit busy. So, we’re combining two newsletters into one this week. We will be looking at exactly how much draft capital affects QBs, RBs, and WRs this week and next with the NFL Draft right around the corner.

Quarterbacks

Since 2014, there have been 81 quarterbacks drafted into the NFL. I took those 81 and grouped them into their respective draft round, then looked at every Top-24 season since 2014 to see how these QBs fared compared to their draft capital.

Instead of going through and mentioning every single round and how picks fared, I’m going to focus on two main groups: Round 1 QBs and Round 2-7 QBs. Here are the results:

There are some things I should note. First off, you probably noticed that 14, 20, 25, and 27 add up to a lot more than 36. To clarify, 27 of the 36 Round 1 QBs had at least a Top-24 season, and 25 had at least a Top-18 season, and so on.

Secondly, Top-18 and Top-24 quarterbacks are mainly for superflex leagues, and the majority of redraft leagues aren’t that (however, it’s very popular in dynasty), but I figured it was worth including them.

Almost all of the quarterbacks who had success who were drafted after Round 1 were Round 2 or 3 selections. After Round 3, the only quarterbacks who had any sort of meaningful relevance were Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.

Why is this❓️Teams who spend up at quarterback often have a dire need at the position and are looking to change their fortunes. Some notable exceptions might include Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Michael Penix, whose teams had them sit most or all of their rookie year (Jordan Love sat for multiple). But for most, the quarterback they select is the QB they hope will change their future, and they deem him good enough to start from day one. Because teams have so much invested in them, they get multiple chances to become what a team hopes they can be.

That isn’t the case for later-round quarterbacks. Often, they are career backups or are out of the league fairly quickly. Even for Round 2 quarterbacks, the chances of becoming a franchise player are slim. Of the six drafted in the first round since 2014, only Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr have had fantasy-relevant careers (and Carr was rarely more than a streamer). The others are Will Levis, Drew Lock, DeShone Kizer, and Jimmy Garappolo. 😬 

What does this mean for the upcoming draft? Well, Cam Ward is the projected first overall pick, so that’s good for him. Of the eight quarterbacks drafted first overall since 2014, six of them have had at least one QB1 season (five had multiple). The two who haven’t? Caleb Williams and Bryce Young. The good news is that there is still time for both of them to change that.

But for every other quarterback, there are questions. While the general consensus is that Sheduer Sanders and Jaxson Dart are first-round picks, there’s also a chance they will fall out of the first round. Jalen Milroe has recently started to receive first-round buzz, but he has been largely labeled a Round 2 selection. Should any of them sneak into the first round, we should feel a lot better about their prospects for fantasy. If they fall to the second, it’s fighting an uphill battle. ⛰️ 

For guys like Tyler Shough, Will Howard, Quinn Ewers, Dylan Gabriel, Kyle McCord, and Riley Leonard, they are all projected Round 3 or worse. They have to rise significantly for us to seriously consider them for fantasy unless something unforeseen happens.

Let’s transition here to the guys our quarterbacks hand the ball off to, the running back.

Running Backs

For running backs, I didn’t go back quite as far as 2014 for this study, though maybe in the future, that’s not a bad idea. Our running back data goes back to 2018, giving us a sample of 141 drafted running backs. I did change up how I grouped them. Unlike the QBs, I separated them into RB1s, RB2s, and RB3s. 

➡️ There is one more thing I should mention. For those unaware of NFL Draft terminology, Round 1 takes place during “Day 1”. Rounds 2 and 3 take place during “Day 2”. The final four rounds, Rounds 4-7, are on the final day of the draft, “Day 3”. I’ll be using “Day” rather than “Round” fairly often in this section. While quarterbacks can largely be grouped into Round 1 vs everything else, running back is a little more nuanced, hence the need for some terminology.

Here is their data at a glance:

The first thing that jumps off the board for me is probably the first thing that jumps off for most: if you are a first-round running back, you have a very good chance at becoming an RB1 for fantasy. The only running backs who failed to have at least one RB2 season were Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny.

Quick aside: Penny had some massive games but just couldn’t stay healthy. If you combine his 2021 league-winning end-of-season run with the beginning of the 2022 season before his injury, a 10-game stretch, his 17-game pace was 1,729 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns (add in some receiving, and that would have been good enough for PPR RB7 in 2024).

Ok, Penny, talk over. The point is that Day 1 running backs are very good bets for fantasy. And the same goes for Day 2 RBs. The RB1 chances aren’t nearly as high, but the RB2 hit rate is nothing to scoff at. In this range, we see guys like Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Brian Robinson, and David Montgomery on the high end. On the low side, there are busts like Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, Trey Sermon, and Darryton Evans. It’s a mixed bag, but overall, it’s still a good sign that a running back was taken on Day 2. Because after that, the cliff looms large.

Of the 95 running backs taken on Day 3 since 2018, only four ever became RB1s. Those four are Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Kyren Williams, and Chase Brown. Less than 10% became RB2s, and only 17% had an RB3 season or better. Simply put, the chances of a running back taken on Day 3 becoming anything for fantasy is slim.

The reason for that is teams that take a flier on a running back on Day 3 simply don’t have much invested in them. The team is not committed to them and is not as eager to see how their investment pays off like they would a Day 1 or Day 2 selection.

What does this mean for the upcoming crop of running backs? Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hamption, TreyVeon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, and Kaleb Johnson all seem like locks to be Day 1 or Day 2 selections. Dylan Sampson is likely to be selected on Day 2, and Cam Skattebo is right on the edge of Day 2 and Day 3. 📈 

But everyone’s NFL Combine darling, Bhayshul Tuten, is still projected for Day 3. The same goes for guys like Lequint Allen, Jordan James, RJ Harvey, Devin Neal, Ollie Gordon, and Trevor Etienne (brother of Jaguars Travis Etienne). Several of those guys have shown the talent and ability to make it happen in the NFL, but the question comes down to the landing spot and coaches. Will they give them a meaningful shot to become something more than a depth piece?

That is going to do it for this edition of the newsletter! Next week, we’ll be discussing wide receivers!