This week we will finish our quick two-part series where we recap everything we’ve learned this offseason. I often need refreshers on things, like listening to an older episode of fantasy football podcasts I enjoy so I can remember key takeaways as the season approaches. We’ve covered a ton of ground this offseason, and the last thing I want is for you to be unprepared for this upcoming season.

So, I’ve compiled some of the key articles of the offseason, linking to each of them, with the quick TLDR takeaways. You are of course welcome to go back and read everything in its fullness, and I think it’s helpful to see the whole process.

Hyper-efficient running backs, here defined as running backs with at least 90 carries and 5 YPC, 26% first-down rate, and 26 attempts per touchdown (or better), don’t often repeat that efficiency year-over-year. The sample set is small, 23 total players since 2014. It’s meant to be a restrictive list; not everyone can be ultra-efficient!

Guys like De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry have been on this list, as well as some more niche names like Mike Gillislee and Bilal Powell.

On average, running backs see a 17% decrease in YPC after a 5+ YPC season, as well as a 52% decrease in Att/TD. In 2025, the running backs that qualified were Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Blake Corum.

Next up is team touchdown regression. This one has been a fun article to write over the last two years, as it gives me an idea of who’s most likely to regress and how much. Tampa Bay was highlighted in the original 2025 edition; even so, I decided to draft several Tampa Bay players in my Scott Fish Bowl team last year. My fellow live drafters got to see my struggle as I made the selections that felt like values where I took them in the draft, but felt wrong given what the study had shown. Sure enough, that team was among the worst in the league. It wasn’t just Tampa that led to its demise, but it didn’t help either!

This year, Top-6 offenses that could be in for some negative regression are the Rams, Lions, Buffalo, Patriots, Colts, and Jaguars. Does this mean avoid all of them? No. They are good teams with good players (Josh Allen, Puka Nacua, James Cook, Drake Maye, etc.)! It does mean that we may need to temper our expectations a little, however.

On the other side of things, the Panthers, Saints, Browns, Jets, Raiders, and Titans are the Bottom-6 offenses from last year that we should expect to see some positive regression in. About a third of this list will not improve their standing; if I had to guess which of the two, it’s Cleveland and the Panthers. But I’m less sure about the Panthers. The Jets could easily be awful again if Geno Smith flops.

We talked a lot about quarterbacks in the last few weeks. This particular study worked a lot like the team regression, which looked at high- and low-producing offenses. In this case, it was high- and low-efficiency passers.

Quarterbacks with a touchdown rate above 6% generally see negative regression in the following season, sometimes by quite a bit. The opposite goes for players who are below 3.5%.

The high touchdown rate QBs from last year were Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy. Some of those names, Stafford and Maye, were from teams that were also among the team regression article. Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff were both on those same lists last year, and Baker had a bad falloff in particular.

Meanwhile, Tyler Shough and Cam Ward were two of our low-efficiency quarterbacks. Michael Penix and Sheduer Sanders were thrown in as well, but we are less certain about their starting status. The first two are the most fantasy relevant.

When we went fishing for sleeper running backs drafted outside of the Top-24 by ADP, we found out that targeting running backs from previous season bottom-10 offenses was actually quite a good strategy.

But there’s a slight catch: if you are searching for a sleeper from a bottom-10 offense, you want to be looking at running backs in the ADP range of RB24-36. Past RB36, the advantage goes to Top-10 offense running backs.

This article was among the more nuanced, so I would highly recommend checking out the process and how things were done. Either way, Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, Jonathon Brooks, and Chuba Hubbard all fit the bill for us. And depending on the format/ADP source, so does Bhayshul Tuten.

Lastly, we examined elite quarterbacks and how rushing is so important to elite production. It’s a lot easier to become a backend QB1 as a pocket passer than it is to become an elite QB1. You need some semblance of rushing to have a reasonable shot at elite ceiling. Sure, pocket passers can do it, think Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow, but it’s less likely.

Also, most of the QBs who finished Top-6 at the position were drafted inside the Top-12 by ADP. I gave Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyler Shough as the names to look out for this year who could step up breakout or return to form.

And finally…

BanterMania league is nearly full, with only one spot left! If you’d like to get into the league, but aren’t on Discord, feel free to DM me @GarrettBFF on X, or GarrettBFF on Sleeper. First come, first served, so be quick! 😉

That’s all I have for today. I will see you again next week, where we will begin a series of sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each skill position. Near the end of August, I will have one final data study about training camp drama and its fantasy impacts before transitioning to regular in-season content.

Have a great day!