Hello everyone!

Last week, I introduced you to the idea of elite quarterbacks: what defines them and where to find them. If you haven’t read that yet, I would highly recommend you check that out. This week, I will be giving you a list of players I think have a shot to be a Top-6 QB that aren’t being drafted in the Top-6 (though I will go over a list of players who might not be in the top six when all is said and done!). I’ll be cheating a little bit as some of these players are just outside the top six QBs by ADP, but remember, most of the players who finish as elite QBs are drafted inside QB1 range.

First, we’ll tackle the guys I am concerned about this season. This does not mean they are not worth drafting, or that I am completely fading them. I’m not! They’re still amazing QBs! I am only bringing them up because of historical trends associated with their sort of archetype and production profiles heading into 2026.

Maye is one of the QBs I think is due for a little bit of regression. Of course, I still expect him to be good, but I think of anyone, he could fall out of the top-6. Maye had a 6.3% touchdown rate in 2025, and we typically see players with an above 6% TD rate one year see a decrease of 1.7% the next year. That would put Maye right around a 4.6% rate, right around the league average. It’s true: his weapons have improved, so he could be among the few who buck this negative trend or at least remain close to the rate he was at in 2025.

Interestingly, Joe Burrow, on a points-per-game basis, was the QB7 last year when you take out his Week 2 injury game, even with a 6.6% touchdown rate. Like Maye, he could also see a drop in touchdown rate this year. But the easiest counterpoint, and it’s a good one, is that he has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. And fun fact, he’s the NFL’s all-time leader in career completion percentage.

Burrow is also more of the traditional pocket passer, a profile that makes it hard to crack into the Top-6 at the position (but as we know, not impossible!).

Yes, I know, he’s drafted right outside of the top six QBs at QB7. But still, if some players drafted as elites fall out of elite territory, someone has to take their place, right? Why not Williams, who took a big step in 2025 and actually finished as the QB6?

Williams has Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and D’Andre Swift at his disposal in the passing game. He ran for 388 yards and three touchdowns last season. Sure, it’s 100 fewer rushing yards than he had in 2024, but that’s still more than usable rushing production.

And he’s got Ben Johnson’s system working for him. During his stint in Detroit, the Lions offense, which was already a Top-10ish offense, saw a jump in passing production and efficiency in his second year as OC. Now in his second year as head coach, I think the Bears could see another jump in offensive effectiveness, with Caleb and others standing to benefit.

Let me get this straight: I don’t like the fact that Dart’s top receiving option while Malik Nabers recovers is Isaiah Likely. Or, we presume it’s Likely. I also don’t like the fact that his OC is Matt Nagy. However, what I do like is his rushing ability and the fact that his head coach oversaw one of the best (if not the best) rushing quarterbacks of the modern era in Baltimore.

Dart was on a 17-game pace of 591 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. That’s 7.4 rushing points per game. I don’t think that’s going to continue because he hopefully doesn’t have to be the whole offense in 2026. Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers should be back, and they added the likes of Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, and Malachi Fields this offseason. Even if Dart’s rushing decreases, I still think that he’s going to be scrambling a lot, designed or not, and that could propel him to elite QB territory if his passing numbers are reasonable.

I get it, none of these names shocks you. All of these guys are people we think have high upside, can run, or are well-known studs, like Mahomes. But the purpose of this section of the article is to give you the names drafted inside of QB1 territory who could finish as an elite asset without having to pay an elite price.

Getting yourself some value with the likes of Mahomes, who’s never been this low since his second season in the NFL, is crazy. He was tied for QB2 in PPG last year with MVP winner Matthew Stafford and other MVP favorite Drake Maye. His offensive environment should be better this year too, with a healthy Xavier Worthy, returning Rashee Rice, the addition of Kenneth Walker and a usable run game, and Eric Bienemy back at OC.

And yet, because he missed a couple of games, we’re dropping him down to being a back-end QB1? Make it make sense to me.

On Sleeper, Josh Allen is going at pick 33. Then it’s Lamar Jackson at 47, followed by Drake Maye 10 spots behind, and Joe Burrow 7 spots behind him. Mahomes, on the other hand, is down at pick 100. If I can get similar, if not better, production 30, 50, or even 70 picks later than I would by selecting one of the other four, why wouldn’t I go for Mahomes?

Here’s the dark horse you wanted. After the Saints’ bye week in Week 11, Shough was the QB6 in PPG. More importantly, he had three rushing touchdowns in that stretch and was on a 17-game pace of 425 rushing yards.

The Saints added weapons to the team this year in Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson. With Chris Olave and Shough’s Oregon teammate Juwan Johnson still in the fold, he could be the sneaky fantasy draft pick that makes it into elite territory this season.

Before I go, I wanted to announce and invite you to join me in a fun league with fellow RotoBanter subscribers!

EVERY touchdown is worth 6 points; we get points for rushing and receiving first downs, as well as a tight end premium bonus. 😎 It’s perfectly free, I just want to get to know you all who subscribe to this newsletter and play some fantasy football with you, but space is limited! Make sure to join the RotoBanter Discord and secure your spot! ⬇

That’s all I have for today. Thanks for stopping by, and I will see you soon!