I began this running back efficiency series last year and wanted to bring it back into the light. At that time, we were coming off a historic season by Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson stated their claim at the top of the running back food chain. Plus, giving this little bit of context gives me an excuse to bring up this insane play again:

All of these incredible running back seasons had me wondering what was going to happen in 2025. All of these guys were putting up big numbers, but big numbers can be done on straight-up volume. What about those who put up big numbers with big efficiency? Think of how crazy De’Von Achane’s rookie season was, or Raheem Mostert’s 18-touchdown season. How badly did those players regress the next year? What can we learn from hyper-efficient running backs?

With another year of data under our belts, I wanted to look at the results and see if we learned anything as we look forward to the 2026 season.

So, as in all of our other studies, we need to define our parameters. Keep in mind, these parameters are a bit arbitrary; there’s no clear-cut way to define a hyper-efficient running back. I have tried to make them fairly hard to hit to limit ourselves to “special” running backs, but not so hard that our sample size is too small to be useful. First, running backs needed to have at least 90 attempts and average 5 yards per carry. Second, they need to be efficient in other ways as well, and for this study, I focused on first down rate and attempts per touchdown.

The scoring efficiency makes sense, but why first downs? Well, three-and-outs aren’t helpful for fantasy. The more first downs a team has, the more chances to score and the more chances a running back has to do his damage. First downs keep the drive alive, and these players are good at getting them. It’s yet another way of measuring a player’s usefulness to their particular team.

I took the average attempts, first downs, and touchdowns of the last four seasons among every running back with at least 90 carries during that time and ended up with a 23% first down rush rate (1DR from here on) and 31 Att/TD. The better a running back is at getting first downs, the higher the 1DR number. For example, 50% 1DR means they averaged a first down every two attempts, and a 10% 1DR means they only got a first down every ten attempts. And for Att/TD, it’s the opposite effect, fewer carries per touchdown means they score more often.

Last year, I compared our efficient running backs with 90+ carries to the position as a whole. That has changed this year. I am comparing them to other backs with 90+ carries, rather than any running back who has had at least a single carry in a given season. That changes our parameters a bit, but I think the results will be more fantasy-relevant since we are comparing efficient backs to other fantasy-relevant players, not just practice-squad guys who play once a year.

I still want to make sure that my criteria isn’t too restrictive, so I’ve established multiple ways for running backs to qualify as efficient, though a little different than last year. I promise I will give a TLDR in a moment. But the main criteria I set out were:

The TLDR of all this process and study notes is this: every RB needed at least 90 attempts and an average of 5 yards per carry. Then they could either be efficient in both 1D/Att and Att/TD, or be hyper-efficient in one of those two additional criteria.

We end up with 23 individual seasons of running backs who meet these criteria from 2014 to 2024, where we can examine what happened to them the following season. Once we get some observations, we will apply what we learn to the 2025 running backs who fit our criteria and how that could impact their 2026 season. ⬇

Now that we’ve defined what we are looking for, how did these running backs fare? How many were able to sustain production? How badly did their efficiency suffer the next season?

Only one running back of the 23, Jahmyr Gibbs, was able to increase his efficiency in all three main efficiency categories: yards per attempt, 1DR, and Att/TD. His 2024 season was incredible (and his 2025 season was also crazy!). Derrick Henry was the only other back who increased his efficiency in two of the three.

In total, 2020 Derrick Henry and 2024 Gibbs were the only running backs who increased their YPC. They and 2022 D’Andre Swift were the only three to increase their 1DR. Only nine of the 24 running backs improved their Att/TD.

Eight of the 23 improved their Att/TD. Those that did averaged right around a 10% increase in efficiency, with Gus Edwards being the lone outlier. From 2019 to 2020, he improved his Att/TD by 64%!  📈

But on average and as a whole, we saw a decrease in efficiency year over year, regardless of category. Here is the total year-over-year change in each category.

🤯 I was shocked at just how much our sample fell off in the touchdown department. A 60% decrease in TD rate is insane. And let’s not act like 16.3% and 14.9% decreases are anything light either. The best way to put that in perspective is to apply it. 🤯

Admittedly, the weakness of this study is that I am studying per-touch efficiency while not accounting for more volume, which impacts fantasy PPG. A back can suffer a decrease in efficiency while still maintaining high-end fantasy value thanks to volume increase. That might have to be on next year’s edition. 🤔

Well, for starters, let’s say you have a 16% decrease in your YPC without increasing your carries to compensate, and you suffer a 60% decrease in touchdown efficiency. A rusher who ran for 1,000 yards is now looking at 840. They’re also looking at fewer scoring opportunities as well because of that. So a 1,000-yard, 10-TD season starts to look more like an 840-yard, 4-TD season. It’s not nearly as appealing. 🤢

Now, since I changed the way I performed this study year-over-year, I currently have only two running backs who qualify as efficient for 2024, rather than the four listed in the original article. However, I think it’s only right to go over their respective seasons. Last year, we looked at Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bucky Irving (Gibbs and Henry are the only two who still qualify).

🦅 Here’s what I wrote about Barkley: “Given the same workload (which based on history is already unlikely), he would drop from 2,005 rushing yards and 13 TDs to 1,684 and 7. That’s still an amazing year, but assuming he keeps his receiving work the same, he would drop to the RB6.” He finished with 1,140 yds, 7 TD, and had nearly identical receiving stats. 1,140 is a heck of a lot under 1,684, so I didn’t quite call that, but it’s still a massive drop in rushing production.

Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry both saw their rushing totals fall in 2025, but still maintained high efficiency in the scoring department. We’ll see them again in this article very soon.

Lastly, Bucky Irving didn’t quite qualify in my new iteration of measuring efficiency, but he suffered the worst season by far of the four. His rushing Y/A dropped from 5.4 to 3.4 YPA, and he had only one touchdown on 173 carries last season. True, he suffered a litany of injuries, so that has to be considered. But it’s still a massive drop off, no matter how you look at it.

This year, our efficient running backs are Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Blake Corum. Henry and Gibbs are hyper-efficient backs and somehow seem to be impervious to considerable falloff. That’s just what comes with greatness. Gibbs will likely take on more of a workload in 2026, so that could come into play. His counting stats may be unaffected, but his efficiency could suffer some. But, please for the love of all that is good, draft him.

🇺🇸 TreVeyon and Corum are interesting names. Both are in varying degrees of a timeshare, with Henderson likely getting an increase in touches this season. I am curious to see how an increase in volume counteracts any potential drop in efficiency. As for Corum, he got a larger backfield share in 2025, but he’s likely behind Kyren Williams yet again and will be drafted as a handcuff more than anything.

The purpose of this study is not to scare you from drafting efficient running backs. They are efficient because they are good at what they do. The purpose is merely to warn you that assuming a repeat of a previous season’s result is a tall task.

Draft good players because they are good players, but keep in mind that it’s very hard to repeat high efficiency. Set level expectations for players and that will keep you grounded during fantasy drafts. 💪

That’s all for today, thanks for reading and I will see you next week!