This week we will begin the first of a quick two-part series where we recap everything we’ve learned this offseason. I often need refreshers on things, like listening to an older episode of fantasy football podcasts I enjoy so I can remember key takeaways as the season approaches. We’ve covered a ton of ground this offseason, and the last thing I want is for you to be unprepared for this upcoming season.

So, I’ve compiled some of the key articles of the offseason, linking to each of them, with the quick TLDR takeaways. You are of course welcome to go back and read everything in its fullness, and I think it’s helpful to see the whole process.

Let’s kick off with where we started: Ballout or Fallout.

We looked at wide receivers, breaking down early career and second-half breakouts to see who went on to succeed, and who didn’t. In general, if a player has 70+ targets, 46+ receptions, and 580+ yards in their rookie season, it’s a great indicator of who will stay hot and who won’t.

Our second half-breakouts were Chimere Dike, Ryan Flournoy, Adonai Mitchell, and Luther Burden. Flournoy and Mitchell are both a bit on the scary side, and Mitchell had two first-round picks, Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper, added to the Jets offense. ✈

🔥 Dike hit two of our three thresholds, which counts for something, and the team trusts him in special teams situations. Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson are now in town, but I’m not burying Dike yet. Does that mean he’s a redraft or dynasty target? No. But I think if you get him as a trade throw-in, that’s perfectly fine.

🐻 Burden also only hit two of three thresholds, but we as a community are feeling much more confident in his ability to have a big year in 2026, especially with DJ Moore out of the picture.

We learned that most breakout tight-end seasons occur within their first three years in the league. There are some exceptions, such as Kyle Pitts’ year five (narrowly missed our PPG threshold as a rookie), David Njoku, or Jonnu Smith.

We found that 56% of tight ends who scored at least 7.1 PPG in one of their first two seasons later broke out (excluding rookie breakouts here). Also, while not as strong an indicator, 38% of players who hit at least 6.7 PPG in one season broke out in the next year. The stronger indicator is the 7.1 PPG, however.

Colston Loveland, Oronde Gadsden, and Mason Taylor all hit 7.1+ PPG as a rookie, but Taylor’s stock took a major hit after the draft. AJ Barner and Theo Johnson headline our potential year-three breakouts after averaging 8.7 and 8.5 PPG in 2025, respectively.

Also, PS, tight end might finally be getting deeper, and it’s affecting the WR position.

A month before the draft, we had the chance to look at Day 3 running backs and what the trends are at that position. I don’t know if I would call it a “renaissance”, looking back, because I don’t know if Day 3 running back success was ever there to begin with. Maybe “an awakening” would have been better?

Either way, it’s making me rethink and consider the 2026 running back class, which lacks much star power, a little more than I might in previous years. Emmett Johnson, Jonah Coleman, Nic Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Demond Claiborne all have paths to viable roles in their given situation. Maybe we shouldn’t ignore that fact.

And last on this list for this week, I discussed which position was more injury-prone: running back or wide receiver? We often hear that it’s running backs, but receivers get hurt too, especially in the last two years with Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, and others missing significant time.

What we found is that running backs do tend to miss more time, but the difference is not as significant as you might think. However, receivers tend to stay healthier overall, with the number of receivers missing between 0-3 games being higher than running backs. However, both positions suffer about the same rate of significant injury absences.

One fantasy application of all this: that’s one reason why the Zero-RB system works! Running backs missing games are more valuable than a receiver, since you generally have an idea who is the next man up, while pass catchers can be a little more fluky (unless it’s a Jordan Addison/Tee Higgins/Davante Adams sort of situation where the WR2 is clear).

And finally…

BanterMania league is nearly full, with only two spots left! If you’d like to get into the league, but aren’t on Discord, feel free to DM me @GarrettBFF on X, or GarrettBFF on Sleeper. First come, first served, so be quick! 😉

That’s all I have for today, I will see you again next week with our second recap, and after that, we get into sleepers, busts, and breakouts, plus one more study on training camp injuries and holdouts!