When going into a data study, one important thing to keep in mind is to not let your preconceived opinions sway your observations. Don’t ask a question about a data set, then approach it in such a way as to get the answer you desire. Your bias has already taken over. The data won’t change your mind; you’ll change the data to fit your mind.

One more thing about this: it’s very easy to do. Two weeks ago, when I did a study on fantasy tight end depth, the question I asked was, “Is tight end deeper?” I wanted to find out if it was, but here’s the problem. Because of my “lived experience” with fantasy football, the whole reason I asked the question in the first place is that I felt like it was. And like any human, I want to be right about that assumption. But also like any human, I’m not always right.

Early on in RotoBanter’s history, back when it was Ballfield Banter, I spent a lot of time writing out a revenge game study. The data collection was a lot of manual labor, tracking free agent and trade moves, then looking at schedules, who played who when, how much each player scored vs their projection, the defensive points allowed to the position, all that. I wanted to find some sort of correlation between a player playing against his former team and a boost in performance.

There was one problem: there was no correlation. I wanted a clear result, but was understandably disappointed when nothing truly came out of the study. But even in “nothing” I learned something: revenge games don’t matter. At best, good/great players might exploit the matchup. That’s it. Other than that? It’s just a fun footnote.

I do my best to avoid this trap of what I will call “manufactured confirmation.” But I won’t say I’m perfect at it either. And in this study, I about fell into that trap. The question I asked myself was, “Are day 3 running backs still a no-go for fantasy?” I mean, think about the last few years: Cam Skattebo, Woody Marks, Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, Dameon Pierce, Michael Carter, Isaih Pacheco, Chase Brown. Some were better than others, but all had an impact.

But then I thought about the rumors surrounding Skattebo and Tracy, with New York looking at Jeremiyah Love. Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks have both been replaced in Houston. Carter was quickly replaced by Breece Hall in 2022. Pacheco is no longer with the Chiefs and is a backup in Detroit. Chase Brown and Bucky look safe though!

And then I saw a thread on X by Corey Buschlen, detailing Day 2 vs Day 3 running backs in recent history.

I was already planning on diving into this subject, so it caught my attention. I had to dive into this study now!

I was already curious whether Day 3 running backs were hitting more often than before, and I assumed that the answer was no. Corey’s thread challenged that idea. And if I wasn’t careful, I could’ve let that sway how I looked at the data. But I am glad to say, I didn’t.

I went to Stathead and pulled every running back season among players who were drafted and played at least eight games in a season since 2015. Then, I pulled I broke things down into a multitude of groups: Day 2 running backs, Rounds 2 and then Round 3 running backs, Day 3 running backs, Rounds 4 and 5 running backs together. Then I looked at those groups and how they did over the course of their first three years, rookie years, and how many times a given player hit certain point thresholds across their career.

With each group, I looked at how many hit 16+, 13+, 11+, or fewer than 11 PPR PPG in each respective time span. For example, Round 4 and 5 running backs who averaged 16+, 13+, etc., PPG in the first three years and rookie years, then how many times they hit a certain threshold in their careers. Why do I approach careers differently? It’s extremely hard to average an elite running back season year in and year out. I just want to know if a running back hit at any point during their career.

It was quite the undertaking, and I wasn’t expecting to get as deep into the weeds as I did. But here we are. Very quickly, why 16, 13, and 11 PPG? 16 and above is generally RB1 territory, 13 PPG RB2, and 11 is a Top-30ish fantasy running back. Had I gone to 10 or 10.5 we might have ventured into RB40 overall territory some years or close to it, and I don’t want to do that.

Overall, as you would expect, earlier drafted running backs, over the course of history, hit at a higher rate than later drafted running backs. That’s true for their first two years, rookie years, and hitting elite seasons in their careers. However, we’ve started to see an interesting trend over the last few years.

Day three running backs, specifically Rounds 4 running backs, have started hitting more often. Since 2015, we haven’t seen a single R4 RB hit an 11+ PPG season in his rookie year, until 2021. After that, we’ve had one hit in four of the last five seasons for a total of four hits among 21 total drafted. Meanwhile, Round 3 running backs in that same time span have hit an 11+ PPG season just once in that same span (De’Von Achane) among 10 total drafted RBs. In other words, since 2021, Round 4 running backs are hitting in their rookie seasons at double the rate of Round 3 running backs.

➡ For what it’s worth, Round 2 running backs hit the 11+ threshold as a rookie over 70% of the time since 2021.

Since 2021, when this trend all started, Rounds 2 and 3 have four and three players, respectively, who have averaged 11+ PPG over their first three seasons. Round 4 has one. However, add in Round 5 to the R4 totals, and you get three there as well (thanks, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown!).

When it comes to reaching a ceiling outcome, since 2021, three running backs selected in Rounds 4-5 have had at least one 16+ PPG season. Three Round 2 running backs have hit that mark (all of them were drafted in 2022), and De’Von Achane is the only Round 3 pick to hit a 16+ PPG season (though Rachaad White got very close). If you step the PPG down to 13+ PPG, the number of players we’ve seen hit that mark in Rounds 2, 3, and 4-5 since 2021 are: 4, 3, and 7, respectively. That’s a massive jump in hits in the first half 

Of course, I didn’t include hit rates, but Rounds 2 and 3 still hold the edge over Rounds 4 and 5 in pure hit rates since 2021. I didn’t share hit rates to “hide” anything, but because I don’t want to overwhelm you with more numbers than I already have.

Ok, TL;DR: I’ve given you a lot of information. What are our takeaways? ⬇

Why are we seeing this sort of rise in Day 3 running backs hitting more often? I think there are a combination of factors:

Am I saying that none of those things happened in earlier years? Of course not! I just think that we’ve had a bunch of factors hitting us all at once that has led to an interesting trend in the NFL that we hadn’t seen before.

❓ What are we going to do about this? Well, I was recently listening to a podcast with JJ Zachariason and “Jax Falcone”, Scott Boulanger, and Scott brought up an interesting point. He said that since backup running backs can receive volume when a starter goes down, why not target them over the depth piece WR in rookie drafts? And it makes sense.

Let’s take the 2024 rookie draft, for example. In one of my drafts, running backs drafted in Rounds 3 and 4 included Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy, and Ray Davis. Meanwhile, of the receivers in that same range, Jalen McMillan was the only “hit”. Other names included Roman Wilson, Jermaine Burton, Jacob Cowing, and Javon Baker. 😶

Stumbling onto a Puka Nacua is extremely hard. But we’ve seen names like Isaih Pacheco, Kyren Williams, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford, Chase Brown, and Tyjae Spears all being drafted late among a lot of receiver names who didn’t do much. Taking a running back in the back half of rookie drafts might not seem as fun, but it appears to be a better option. Their potential for immediate production is there in ways it isn’t at other positions. Their value can rise quickly, presenting ways to capitalize in dynasty should you desire to do so. 📈

So in rookie drafts this year, I’m going to be paying attention to running backs more. The 2026 class is “meh” but we thought the same thing about 2024, and we got several fun players in the back half of rookie drafts who helped our teams. Day 3 running backs still aren’t quite as great as earlier drafted RBs, but I’m certainly having to change my tune about them.

That’s going to do it for me today. Thanks for stopping by!