Anatomy of a Top-6 Fantasy Quarterback

This article has gone by several names, like “The Importance of Rushing Quarterbacks” and “Finding Elite Quarterbacks”. Now in its third iteration, it also has a third title. Whether I should continue to come up with more creative names for it each year to keep up the pattern or settle on this name for future use, I’m not sure. But I’m leaning toward the latter.

Ever since Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season, fantasy managers have gotten much smarter with their QB selections. Not only that, but rushing QBs are not only more prevalent, but often they are also good passers, further pushing them up draft boards. What used to come by on the cheap, you now must pay up for.

But what exactly makes an elite fantasy QB? What sort of traits do we need to search for? Firstly, you should search for guys with names like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. Maybe even Jayden Daniels now. But that only gives us four names, and there’s no guarantee they repeat last season’s production, be it regression or injury (Allen and Hurts can’t continuously put up 10+ rushing scores, right?). So, how do we find candidates who might join our list of the top three/four names?

To find out, we’re going to examine every Top 6 fantasy QB season since 2019. We’ll dive into rushing touchdowns, attempts, and yards on our way to find our ideal targets for elite production in 2025 (I will be using Top 6 and elite interchangeably).

Touchdowns are the easiest to tackle and get out of the way. While, of course, you generally want your quarterback to score as many rushing touchdowns as possible (Jalen Hurts says hi), it’s not a requirement for a quarterback to have a high rushing touchdown total to finish in the top 6 QBs or even in the top 3. Josh Allen scored 15 rushing TDs in 2023 and was the QB1. In 2019, Lamar’s MVP year, he and the rest of the top 4 quarterbacks scored 13 rushing TDs combined. Of the 36 Top 6 QB seasons:

• Only 11% have rushed for fewer than 2 touchdowns.

• 69% have rushed for 3 or more scores.

I should clarify, there’s a lot of variance for quarterbacks when it comes to rushing touchdowns, making it a non-sticky stat. Since 2019, Lamar Jackson has rushed for 7, 7, 2, 3, 5, and 4 scores. In that same time frame, Kyler Murray has run for 4, 11, 5, 3, 3, and 5 (though injuries were also a factor for Kyler, the 11 is quite the outlier). So overall, while rushing scores are important, and you do want to aim for around 3 rushing scores, QBs don’t have to find paydirt at an incredible rate to become a Top 6 option.

What is something else we should be looking for?

What about rushing attempts and yards?

Rushing scores are tough to predict. Can Jalen Hurts score 10+ rushing touchdowns five years in a row? In a tush-push heavy offense, for sure, but that doesn’t mean it’s a given. We just saw the kind of variation in Jackson and Murray’s rushing scores. But what can we say they will all have in common? They are going to run the football.

While scoring is variable, we have a good idea who is going to run and a good idea about how much. That’s where we can find our edge:

Cool, a graph! Now what? I’m glad you asked! Rushing volume is extremely important for elite quarterbacks, and it is very hard for passers to have a high-end season without rushing work. In fact:

• 80% rushed at least 50 times in a season, 75% of the elite QBs ran for at least 250 yards.

• The QBs who did not reach 50 att-250 yards required a lot more passing production, as you would expect. They needed an average of 38.7 passing TDs in a season. 🤯 For example, while Aaron Rodgers threw 48 passing touchdowns in 2020 to get to QB3, Kyler Murray had a combined 37 and finished as the QB2 thanks to his rushing.

• Speaking of rushing, for those who have a 50-250 baseline, they needed only an average of 31.6 passing touchdowns to achieve elite status.

Looking at QBs using PPG

Taking things a step further, let’s look at rushing PPG (RPPG) and where a QB finishes in the Top 6.

The QB1 since 2019 has gotten at least 5.6 RPPG. QB2 is much the same. Interestingly, the QB3 overall has usually been occupied by whoever the outlier passing season goes to. Be it Joe Burrow in 2024, Dak Prescott in 2023, Brady in 2021, Rodgers in 2020, and Jameis Winston in 2019. The one lone dot is Jalen Hurts in 2022.

Aside from that interesting anomaly, most of the dots in this graph for each Top 6 QB finish are above the 2.5 PPG mark. 75% of Top 6 QB seasons have seen the QB score 2.5 rushing PPG. In case you’re curious what that looks like, it’s 250 rushing yards and three TDs. Those numbers sound oddly familiar, don’t they? 😄 

➡️ So when looking for an elite quarterback, you’re looking for a player who can reasonably achieve 2.5 RPPG, whether that’s 250 yards and three scores, or 310 yards and two. However you come about it, you want that rushing edge. ⬅️ 

What about QB1 performances as a whole?

We’ve examined what it takes for a quarterback to crack the top 6, but how does that compare to the rest of the QB1 (top 12) range?

Assuming a twelve-team single QB league, you’ve got 72 potential QB1s over since 2019 (top twelve QBs times six seasons). Here is what QB1 RPPG and yards look like over that stretch.

Some quick takeaways we can gather from this chart:

• While 75% of the top 6 QBs were over 2.5 RPPG, that number drops to 58% of the top 12 quarterbacks as a whole.

• For QB7-12 specifically (backend QB1s), only 42% met or exceeded the 2.5 RPPG mark. Another 42% of backend QB1s failed to hit even 1.5 RPPG.

In essence, it is much easier for a pocket passer to finish as a fantasy QB1 than it is for them to crack elite status. Should you miss out on the known top-tier rushing QBs or one who has the potential to be, waiting in drafts to take an upside shot or two at a pocket passer or cheap rushing QB (Daniel Jones, anyone?) isn’t a bad way to go. Especially because they often come cheap. 💰️ 

I’ve thrown a lot of information at you, but I want to show you one final chart: total touchdowns vs QB finish:

Every single year since 2019, the fantasy QB1 has finished with at least 40 total touchdowns. If you’re swinging for the ultimate upside shot, you have to ask yourself: Can this player score 40 times?

Where do we go from here?

Until now, I’ve just given you numbers. Usually, I tell you how my studies could affect certain players or teams in the upcoming year, like I’ve done with studying regression. But today I switch it up. Now I’m going to give you my personal takes on who I think can crack the Top 6, Top 12, or even QB1 this year.

• Top 6 - Justin Fields ✈️ Believe it or not, Fields wasn’t all that bad last year. Before Russell Wilson replaced him, Fields was the QB6 in fantasy. His rushing upside is obvious, and he has an arguably better cast around him in 2025. His passing improved in 2024, let’s hope the Jets staff can cater toward what he was best at. Honorable mention: Bo Nix 🐴 

• Top 12 - Bryce Young 🐈‍⬛ From Week 8 to 17 in 2024, Young was the QB16. If you include his Week 18 game, he was the QB12. His weapons have improved, notably via the arrival of Tetairoa McMillan. Adam Thielen is still there, Jalen Coker flashed some upside, and it’s possible that will put Xavier Legette in the slot, where he could be more productive. I think the Panthers might be a little sneaky this year. HM: Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence 🐆 

• Overall QB1 - This is tough. I need to put everything I just wrote into practice. I need someone who is not a pocket passer with plenty of rushing upside. I also need someone capable of scoring A LOT. Plus, saying it’s Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen feels like cheating (but a good idea). I just wrote about how Jayden Daniels might regress. I’m going to go with Jalen Hurts. In 2024, the Eagles passed the least they ever have with Nick Sirianni, and Saquon Barkley can’t take on 400+ touches in back-to-back years, so they’ll need to switch things up. 🦅 

One final word of advice. Just because you draft a quarterback who has a nice projectable rushing baseline like we talked about, doesn’t mean he will finish top 6. He could end up as a very safe and reliable QB1. The key is to give yourself as good a chance as possible at a ceiling outcome rather than banking on a pure passer having a great year.

That will do it for me. Thanks for reading, and I will see you again soon!