Is Jayden Daniels Heading for the Sophomore Slump?

I was listening to a QB ranking episode this week and towards the top of the list, Jayden Daniels was brought up. One of the hosts had him a bit lower than consensus, and part of that was due to the fear of him regressing much like CJ Stroud did in his second year. Defenses have a year of film on him, can he truly replicate the magic of his rookie year, all that good stuff. That got me thinking, a LOT of people, myself included, got burned by CJ Stroud. 🐄 

Can we learn from that experience? What factors led to his downfall? Is what happened to Stroud something we see as the “per usual” for second-year QBs and he simply made it more apparent?

To find out, I went to Stathead and used their tool to find Quarterbacks in their first two seasons who started at least 8 games each year from 2014 to 2024. This does not include the 2024 rookies, just players who had their second season in 2024 (think Stroud, Bryce Young, etc). I wanted to compare touchdown rate, interception rate, rushing yards, points per game, and the like. I ended up with a sample of 25 QBs.

For starters, quarterbacks improved their average year-over-year touchdown rate by over 25%. Interestingly, their interception rate also goes up 5%, rather than going down. Also, eight saw their points per game increase by 4 or more points in their second season. Only four saw a decrease of two or more points. The other 13 quarterbacks stayed within about a point and a half of their rookie season PPG (Davis Mills was within 0.02 points!).

But that only tells us so much. Ok cool, we see improvements and they seem to be good bets to increase or at least stay put in their points per game, so what? What about Stroud?

➡️ Well, there’s another layer to this. Six of the 25 quarterbacks had a touchdown rate above 4.5 in their rookie year. Those six were Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and CJ Stroud. Of those six, four would see a decrease in their touchdown rate, and five would see a decrease in points per game. The only one to increase his PPG was Herbert, who ended up increasing it by 0.21.

I don’t want to keep making caveats, but I do think it’s worth noting the following. Dak was not part of the group that saw their PPG decline by 2 or more. He went down 1.6 PPG Y-o-Y. Mariota’s PPG went down only -0.25 PPG. Baker, Stroud, and Jones all saw theirs go down by at least -2.8.

Jones’s case is interesting because his touchdown rate was cut by more than half from his rookie season (5.2 to 2.5). Part of that, I believe, is due to Saquon Barkley missing time, and thus his offense got much, much worse. While it does add some additional context, of course, that only goes so far. But enough excuses for these players, they all went down in scoring for one reason or another. What can we learn from them?

As far as Daniel’s goes, his touchdown rate was 5.2%. 🛑 That’s already a red flag because 66% of rookie QBs with a +4.5% TD rate see negative regression the next season. But, the good news is 33% of them maintained their high rate, and Daniels weapons seem to have improved this year. ✅ 

But Daniels has something that guys like Stroud or Baker don’t/didn’t have and that is rushing upside (Baker wasn’t a rushing QB early in his career, only 9 rushing yards per game his first two years). Daniels averaged 52.6 rushing yards per game last year, and that would have been the third-best single-season mark among the quarterbacks sampled in this study.

Should Daniels regress to a more league-average 4% TD rate and have the same passing volume and efficiency, he’d end up with 19 touchdowns and 20 FPPG. That would be good for QB7 in fantasy points per game in 2024.

Oh, and on the efficiency side of things, I have good news. 88% of our quarterback sample increased their efficiency Y-o-Y in ANY/A! Want the bad news? Those other 12% were Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, and CJ Stroud; the same quarterbacks who also saw a decrease in PPG after a high TD rate rookie year. They make three of the top four most efficient passers in our historical sample. Daniels would rank fifth, with an ANY/A of 6.5. 😬 

I don’t think anyone doubts the talent of Daniels. I haven’t found anyone saying he’s a bad QB. But I have heard people making the argument for a regression, and there are some warning signs. So let’s wrap this up, shall we?

First off, on the downside, Daniels has a high touchdown rate. 66% of the quarterbacks who had a +4.5% TD rate saw regression the next year. And while the vast majority of quarterbacks increased their passing efficiency in their second season, the three that didn’t were also among the group who had a super-efficient rookie year. So there certainly are some things working against him.

But on the positive side, Daniels has such a high floor thanks to his rushing ability that he can maintain his PPG, or at least stay close. He’s also a polished passer with improved weapons. It really is a test of “what do you trust, the data, or your eyes?”

For dynasty formats, I’m not bothered by Daniels’s rookie year. If you took him as the second QB off the board, then I wouldn’t fault you. He looks like a stud quarterback for years to come. For redraft, it gets a little more interesting. You’re not concerned with locking down your fantasy QB of the future, you’re worried about THIS year. For me personally, despite the potential risk, I’m going to think very highly of Daniels in year two. His current overall ADP is a little rich for me (28th according to FantasyPros ADP) but I’m in on his positional ADP of QB3.

That will do it for me today. Thanks for stopping by and I’ll be back next week!