I was not expecting the 49ers to come out with a victory on Thursday; no one was. That was a crazy game. Down so many starters, they got a doink kick in overtime that ended up being the winning score. Kendrick Bourne showed why he’s an alpha receiver in the league. 😉 Ok, not exactly, but the 49ers fight and grit in this game, especially Mac Jones, who looked destined to be ruled out after taking a hit and grasping his knee, only to return and finish the game.
We’ve got a lot to cover in our review and preview, including introducing a new section, so let’s get to it!
📼 Week 4 Rewind and Stats to Know
🐏 Puka Nacua is off to an otherworldly start to 2025. He’s currently on pace for 178 receptions and 2,138 yards. That would destroy the current NFL records for receptions and receiving yards.
Even after sharing a backfield for the first two weeks of his career, Omarion Hampton is still tied for the seventh most running back receptions in 2025 pre-TNF. ⚡
🟠 Since Week 2, Quinshon Judkins ranks 9th in the NFL in rushing yards and has averaged 4.8 YPC.
I don’t expect his absurd catch rate to continue, but it’s notable that Jonathan Taylor is on pace for a career-high 55 receptions.
The top two players in team air yards share through Week 4 are Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill. Both are out for the season.
He’s not incredibly fantasy relevant, but I just found this interesting. Michael Wilson has a 19.4% team air yard share per NGS, but only 36 total receiving yards. For comparison, Marvin Harrison has 39% of the Cardinals’ air yards and 208 receiving yards.
Week 5 Preview
Last week, the Colts predictably did well except for Josh Downs. I was hopeful that the game script would work in Downs’s favor, but it did not. I didn’t quite call the massive breakout game by Ashton Jeanty last week, but I did point out he was in a good spot to produce after struggling to get going. Sleeper TE pick Chig Okonkwo let me down, heck, the Titans as a whole did. That’s hard to do when you have low expectations. J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields both had good games on Monday, Fields especially.
🟠 Isaiah Bond is where we will start this week. I wasn’t super excited for him as a prospect; his production score wasn’t incredible. But several film guys I listen to and respect liked his tape, so I wasn’t going to dismiss him completely. After he signed with the Browns, I even labeled him as a sleeper. Bond has seen his targets and yards increase every week this season (even if the increase was marginal), culminating in six targets and three catches for 58 yards in Week 4 against the Lions. Cedric Tillman is now on IR, and Bond seems set to take advantage. I can’t recommend starting him since Dillon Gabriel is at the helm, making his first-ever start while overseas, but I can advise you to stash him!
🔴 Michael Carter is in line for more touches than we are expecting. I don’t feel great with him as an RB2, but certainly as a flex play against the Titans. The Tennessee defense has given up the most rushing yards and touchdowns to running backs this season.
Michael Carter: “It’s been a lot. You go from Pat Tillman (practice squad player of the week award) one week to starting the next.”
— #Theo Mackie (#@theo_mackie)
8:30 PM • Oct 1, 2025
🐮 The Ravens have built up a reputation as a tough defense, but that has not been the case in 2025. They have allowed the most fantasy points to the position so far this season, and the most receptions to running backs in the NFL. Woody Marks played the majority of the snaps for the Texans last week and crucially operated as their primary receiving back.
Jacksonville might be a bit of a meme thanks to the offense struggling, but I’d like to point out their defense has been good. They are 28th in points allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed, and second only to Houston in drives given up that end in a score. Their passing defense might be their weakness, but even there, they’ve been ball-hawks. Does that mean I’m fading Patrick Mahomes and Xavier Worthy? No. But I won’t be starting any running back against them.
Looking at raw box score stats, the Miami Dolphins look like they are somehow an average matchup for receivers despite their lack of corner depth. However, looking a little further at a per-attempt basis, they give up the second-most adjusted yards per attempt behind only Dallas, a defense we target for receivers. You’ll find a take that disagrees with this below, but I think Tetairoa McMillan is a great start this week, maybe he even scores his first NFL touchdown.
🔥 I don’t like this play, but if you are in need of a desperation play in a deep league, I will yet again put forth Elic Ayomanor. He’s had no fewer than five targets in every game this season, though in two games with seven targets, he’s managed to catch just two passes each time. So maybe 5-6 targets is the magic number for a 4-40-1 stat line, good for 14 points in PPR.
Brian Thomas Jr. has a 23% target share through four weeks. Surprisingly, the next highest targeted Jaguar is not the player they spent two first-rounders and a second rounder to grab. It’s Brenton Strange. Unfortunately, Kansas City is one of five teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end (oddly, three of the five are AFC West teams).
✈ Does anyone want to guess which team has allowed the most passing yards this year? The Dallas Cowboys. Who has allowed the sixth most rushing yards to QBs? Also Dallas. Who does Justin Fields play this week? You probably figured out who by this point.
Derrick Henry ran for 169 yards in the Ravens’ opening game. He’s run for a combined 115 yards since. The chink in Houston’s armor is their run defense, but even then, Henry is likely playing with former Cowboys’ QB Cooper Rush under center. I will not advise sitting Henry because that sounds insane, but I will say to temper expectations.
We get to see former Ohio State teammates Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka face off on Sunday. You don’t need me to tell you to start them. I just wanted to mention them for the fun of it.
From Week 3, I recommended Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith. Smith was up and down, but Stafford had two good weeks against Philly and San Fran. Jeremy McNichols is stuck in a committee, and Tyler Allgeier was great against Washington and remains an elite handcuff. Kayshon Boutte has been…booty, but Ayomanor has at least shown promise. Ja’Tavion Sanders got hurt, so we will never know.
Our Preemptive Pickups of the Week:
Jaxson Dart (NO, PHI, DEN), Matthew Stafford (BAL, JAC)
Kenneth Gainwell (CLE, CIN, GB), Justice Hill (HOU, LAR), Kendre Miller (NYG, NE, CHI)
Romeo Doubs (CIN, ARI, PIT), Troy Franklin (PHI, NYJ, NYG),
Harold Fannin Jr. (MIN, PIT, MIA), Mason Taylor (DAL, DEN, CAR, CIN)
Kendre Miller needs to be rostered if you have space. I’d argue you should likely make space. He’s getting more involved in New Orleans, and should Kamara get hurt or be traded, Miller will be a top priority on waivers.
We have one final section for this newsletter. In the past, I’ve done Spousal Showdown, where my wife and I go head-to-head in a DFS contest, comparing “skill” (if you consider me “skillful” 😆 ) vs luck. I’m not fully bringing that back, but for fun I wanted to mix in this new section from time to time.
Start-Sit Specials
Brian Thomas Jr or Tetairoa McMillan?
Brian all the way, I don’t even know who McMillan is (apparently Garrett’s favorite guy right now, but obviously I don’t listen to him).
Malik Washington or Troy Franklin?
This one I could go either way. They’re both really cute, but I’m going to say Malik Washington because the Dolphins are my Dad’s team (the white outfits looked better than the black, though).
Sam Hartman or Aaron Rodgers
Sam looks like he is AI, he doesn’t even look like a real person. He scares me. -1/10. Aaron Rodgers is getting really old though, I feel like he can’t possibly be that fast anymore. Start Aaron, but this has got to be his last year. Give my man a break.
Editor’s note: Sam has some great hair; let’s acknowledge that.
If you’d like to get involved in the fun of Picks from a Rookie, make sure to join the Discord by clicking the banner above or the link mid-sentence. That’s going to do it for today. I hope you guys enjoyed the new section, had some laughs, and are amped up for Sunday. Take care! 😎