It’s wide receiver week! I feel like I owe you all a little more this week after basically giving you a sleepers and fades list while calling it a “primer.” So let’s dive in a little more this week.

First off, what stats matter for receivers? We see many different terms thrown around: YAC, air yards, first-read targets, aDOT, etc. I’m smart enough to know that there are extremely intelligent people out there whom I should listen to and draw some insights from. Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points is one of them, and he lays out some great stuff in this thread about what stats actually matter at WR and their predictiveness for next season production.

Spoiler, I also like one of Ryan’s sleeper mentions, one we will discuss a little later in this newsletter. 😉

Next, I want to introduce you to the “WR Coaster”. I couldn’t NOT do a study for you guys! When looking at fantasy ADP from 2020-2024, I wanted to observe round-by-round PPG trends for receiver and running back, as those two are often juxtaposed against each other.

What I found was fascinating. While the famed RB Deadzone does appear to exist based on the data I have, it’s often framed between Rounds 3-6 of fantasy drafts. I would argue it’s actually Rounds 5-7:

So we’ve established that RB Deadzone seems to hover around Rounds 5-7 while RB appears better than WR during Rounds 3-4. But what’s interesting is that WR also sees a bit of a downturn in that same area, but not in the same way as running backs. Recievers in Rounds 5-7 hit 16+ PPG at a much higher rate than RBs do. That’s not the issue.

The thing about the running backs in the RB Deadzone is that while they are compared to receivers drafted in the same area, they’re also compared to backs drafted later. Why take an upside shot now when you could take the same shot later? When looking at receivers in rounds 5-7, you actually have a slightly better shot at nabbing a WR2 (14+ PPG) in Rounds 8-10 than you do in Rounds 5-7 (31.5% vs 29%). But, your chances of nabbing a potential WR1 are nearly 9x higher in that 5-7 range vs 8-10 range (16.9% vs 1.9%).

Not only that, but while the RB Deadzone is in Rounds 5-7, if you look at Rounds 5 and 6 specifically, running backs are putting up 14+ PPG, more often than WRs in those same two rounds.

Put into practice, let’s say you grabbed an early TE. You have one receiver and two running backs. While Rounds 8-10 give you virtually the same odds at a WR2, you want to shoot for some upside since your WRs are shallow to this point. You take your shot at a guy you think can be a difference maker, because a safer play can be found later.

Or, you have solid WRs because that’s how the board fell to you. You’re solid there, but you don’t have many, if any, RBs. You can’t just start receivers; you’ll have to grab running backs at some point. So, you take a running back or two in the dreaded deadzone, knowing that while the ceiling could be capped (or not, people emerge from the deadzone every year), they will help your team build much-needed depth and flexibility. Plus, you know you can grab depth receivers later, as well as take shots at upside running backs later in the draft.

Do you see why I called it a coaster? The switchbacks in values and what positions have provided the most value can make your head spin! My best advice is to know your team and be flexible. Knowing when to target certain positions given your team and draft context is an acquired skill!

Before we move on to our targets, sleepers, and fades, I’d like to mention that my ADP source is FantasyPros consensus ADP. Now let’s get to it!

Tet McMillan is going to be peppered with targets this year. In my receiver model, only five players have a prospect score higher than Tet: Malik Nabers, Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Drake London. Three of those names admittedly finished as a WR3 by season's end, but the nice thing is you’re only having to pay WR3 prices with a good shot at upside! He’s going to operate as Bryce Young’s primary target on the outside and has the size and ability to be an alpha receiver. I’m drafting him with confidence, which has probably been inflated by the chemistry they displayed in Carolina’s preseason game against Cleveland.

Those who know me know I love Josh Downs and have ever since he came out of UNC. And that’s coming from a Duke fan! Downs was a player that Ryan pointed out in his 1D/RR thread, mentioning his 1D/RR rate was the 10th best in the NFL, and many of the guys above and below him are known fantasy studs. I’d also like to add his target rate was 29.6%, 6th best in the NFL (translation: when he was on the field, the ball was coming his way 30% of the time, insane usage).

Yes, there are QB questions, but if Anthony Richardson wins the job, it means he’s improved. If Daniel Jones wins the job, it means he’s doing better than ARich, so no matter what, it’s likely an upgrade for Downs. Oh, and Downs is a slot receiver. Why is that significant? Jones’s slot man in 2024 was Wan’Dale Robinson, and in his starts for the Giants, Wan’Dale was 5th in the NFL in targets. 📈 Plus, his ADP of 116th overall is not a bad spot for finding potential breakout WRs.

Throughout the draft process, I was not a fan of Isaiah Bond. He was getting first-round buzz for quite a while, but I just didn’t see it with his production profile. Then he bombed the combine, posting an acceptable 40-time, but not anywhere near expected after hyping himself up. Then he gets arrested. Then he goes undrafted and stays unsigned. But now, he’s likely heading to the Cleveland Browns because they decided they didn’t have enough drama already on the roster.

But, while I am a stats guy, I respect what people saw on film, such as the guys over at CouchScouts loving his speed and natural ability. And quite honestly, Bond has the chance to make a name for himself. Jerry Jeudy is the only true established WR on the roster. Cedric Tillman is intriguing, but he flashed for three weeks and suffered a season-ending head injury. Diontae Johnson is a journeyman at this point. Bond offers a skillset the Browns simply don’t have on the roster, so he’s an interesting stash/waiver pickup in deeper leagues. 🟠

Honorable mentions: Davante Adams, Keon Coleman (love the Year 2 breakout potential), Xavier Worthy, and Calvin Ridley

His ADP is down in some places, but Tyreek Hill is still too high for me to draft, even at WR13. We can look at this in two different ways. One, the vibes are awful in Miami. Hill has had beef with the team, his coach, and his QB all offseason. On the stats side, his YPRR was the worst since 2017 (which is as far back as the data could take me). His yards before catch were the second-lowest in his career. Yards after catch and passer rating when targeted were the lowest in his career. He went from being a Top-12 WR in PPR PPG for seven straight years to the WR29 in 2024. He’s not someone I’ve drafted often, and even then, I prefer him as my WR2 or, even better, 3.

Another WR coming off the worst YPRR of his career is DK Metcalf. Now in Pittsburgh, Metcalf is the unquestioned WR1 after George Pickens was traded to Dallas, so he has that going for him. His competition for targets includes Roman Wilson and Calvin Austin, and Wilson didn’t play last year. But he has not been a better than WR22 in PPG since 2021, and hasn’t finished above WR21 in the last two seasons. A change of scenery can help with that, but an aging Aaron Rodgers in a run-first scheme isn’t my favorite environment. I would rather take McMillan, who is taken in the same area in drafts.

Mims is drafted late, I understand that, so it’s tough to say he’s a fade. But, he’s been getting some hype, and I’m not sold on it. First off, there’s added competition for targets in the Broncos’ offense this year. Evan Engram, Pat Bryant, and RJ Harvey were brought in, as well as further development of Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele. Courtland Sutton is still there. Second, readers who have been around a while know that when a receiver breaks out in the second half of the season, it doesn’t always carry over to the following year. Mims fits the profile of someone who doesn’t carry over.

Third, while he’s getting manufactured targets, I’m not hyped at the fact that they are at the line of scrimmage (effectively a screen play), as shown by Hayden Winks of Underdog:

In a bestball format, he’s a big-play threat and fine for that format. I’m just not betting on him in season-long. I would rather have someone like Rashid Shaheed, Luther Burden III, Rashod Bateman, or a last-round flier on Isaiah Bond.

That’s going to do it for our wide receiver primer! Thanks for reading. Be sure to check out the Discord, where you can discuss draft strategy, players to target, and more with me and others as we prepare for the 2025 season!