Let’s talk about the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing game. I posted a short thread on X on Wednesday, and as I am typing this newsletter, the Eagles are playing the Giants in only a few short hours. So by the time you read this, things could have changed drastically.

AJ Brown has not been helpful for fantasy this season. Even if you take out his abysmal Week 1, he is still only the WR35 on the season in PPR. He’s still getting targeted, with 8, 10, 9, and 8 targets since Week 1, so targets aren’t an issue. His catch percentage and ADOT are career lows of 52.8% and 10.8, respectively. Teammate Devonta Smith is averaging more than 15 receiving yards per game than Brown, and his catch rate is up at 83%.

At least Brown’s not dropping passes, so it’s not quite the Brian Thomas Jr./Calvin Ridley issue.

Turning to Jalen Hurts, he’s kept up his overall accuracy, but he has also taken a step back in overall production. In 2024, he completed 2.9 passes/gm of 20+ yards. This year, it’s down to 2.4. It’s roughly a 17% drop in big plays, which is significant but not everything. So how about this: he’s gone from 7.3 completions/gm of 10+ yards down to 4.8! Using Stathead, there have been seven different times Jalen Hurts has thrown a deep pass to Brown, only one of those have been completed. He’s completing passes, just not downfield.

If you take out all of Hurts’ deep passes intended for Brown, he has caught 18 of 29 passes, which is a catch rate of 62%, a number more in line with his career average. But even that doesn’t explain everything that is going on. Because in the past, you didn’t have to take out deep passes for Brown to be better than 62%.

This is where I think it’s essential to remind ourselves that not everything can be explained through statistics. Stats and data are important; it’s what this newsletter is based on! But even I know they aren’t everything. Chemistry between a receiver and a QB is paramount. The mental state of the player themselves is also very important, and Brown has made his frustrations known this season with his usage and it’s shown on the field with lapses in effort (such as on a deep route against Denver where he slowed mid-route, assuming the ball wasn’t coming his direction).

I’m not sure what’s going to happen on Thursday. Many are of the opinion that the Eagles are going to have a big passing night against them thanks to the Giants’ lackluster defense. I think it’s equally likely that the Eagles could run all over them, or have a big first half and then run the ball the second half like we saw in many games last year.