🐻 Despite completing his first ten passes on Monday Night Football, Caleb Williams ended Week 1 tied for the worst QB in ± expected completion differential, with an expected comp. % of 73.2 compared to his actual 60% completion percentage. Who did he tie with? Bryce Young.

Jaxson Smith-Njigba had a whopping 91% of his team’s air yards in Week 1.

🎖 Bill Croskey-Merritt was second among running backs in rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt in Week 1 with 3.91. That has since fallen to 2.52 after Thursday Night Football.

🐮 In that same metric, Nick Chubb was sixth best.

🐦 Zach Charbonnet had three carries inside the 10-yard line compared to Kenneth Walker’s one.

🟡 DK Metcalf caught 7 of 4 targets for 83 yards in Week 1. Here’s the kicker. 68 of those yards came after the catch, the most YAC in any game of his career. His ADOT was also an incredible…4 yards, the lowest in his career. Teammate Jonnu Smith had an ADOT of -1 yard and -14 yards before the catch; he ended with 15 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions.

Meanwhile, Calvin Austin (lots of Steeler talk here…and I’m not a Steelers fan) had 66% of the team’s air yards, the third-best rate in the league. ⚫

Cam Ward struggled in his professional debut, but I’m not gonna put it all on him. First, the Broncos led the league in pressure rate this week, so it was trial by fire against one of the league’s best defenses. Secondly, his receivers were credited with a total of five drops, the most in the league.

🔥 Cam Ward can’t catch a break. He goes from the swarming Denver Broncos defense to the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams were top 7 in sack percentage and Bottom 5 in A/NYA in Week 1. Aka, they were sacking the QB a lot, and they weren’t allowing much through the air when a QB threw the ball. The Rams’ secondary isn’t as good as the Broncos, so as long as they’re past their dropsies, Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor could be in for a decent week.

Cincinnati just allowed 10 receptions for 100 yards against the Browns last week, which could mean Brenton Strange is a decent streamer. He led the Jaguars in receiving last week, and while I don’t think that will continue for long, I think he’s usable once again on Sunday. 🐆

✈ He might not be Derrick Henry, but Breece Hall looks like a great start against Buffalo this week. The Bills just allowed 238 rushing yards to the Ravens, and while one week isn’t indicative of how they will do over the whole year, Buffalo has been an average to above-average matchup each of the last several seasons. Also, start Justin Fields.

🟣 Zay Flowers went off in Week 1, but I’m curious to see what happens in Week 2. The Bengals are infamous for their slow starts, but the Browns still have excellent corners on the outside. Was it Cleveland’s defense that largely held the Bengals in check, or the Bengals themselves? The good news is Flowers seems to have taken away the top target crown from Mark Andrews, so extra target volume could work in his favor.

If I must choose between Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, I would start Cedric Tillman. 🟠

Not to be too much of a homer here, but it’s worth mentioning that it appears Quinshon Judkins will be making his first NFL start this week. I don’t think it will be a full allotment of snaps; no one does. But could I see 6-8 carries this week? Sure. That’s not enough to start him in fantasy, but I do think that means Dylan Sampson gets a lot of work again this week.

Spencer Rattler scored 11.5 points in Week 1. However, I’d like to mention he didn’t turn the ball over and had 29 rushing yards, boosting his floor. And, Juwan Johnson nearly came down with a game-tying touchdown, but lost it as he hit the ground. Had that throw been completed, Rattler would have ended the day with 16.22 points. Is that game-changing? No, but it does put in perspective how close he was to a decent fantasy performance by streaming standards. I don’t think I would start him this week against San Francisco, but I am curious how he continues to improve in the Kellen Moore offense. ⛪

⛏ I don’t see how Ricky Pearsall isn’t fed this week by Mac Jones. Against a suspect defense, fire him up.

🔵 It’s just one week, but Malik Nabers is on a 204 target pace in 2025. I think that the 42% catch rate will improve, because it wasn’t like he dropped the ball. Of his 12 targets in Week 1, five were deemed catchable by PlayerProfiler. You know how many he caught? Five. Whether it’s Russell Wilson not airballing him or through Jaxson Dart putting the ball on him through designed plays, things will get better for Nabers. He gets Dallas this week who didn’t give up much to the Eagles receivers, but the thing is, the Eagles didn’t need them in the first place to beat the Cowboys. The Giants don’t have that luxury. They will need to lean on him to stand a chance.

🐈‍⬛ Bryce Young needs to bounce back against Arizona in the worst kind of way. I would argue he has the weapons to do it, or at least good enough to show signs of life, but he must improve. I’m not starting him unless I’m in a superflex or incredibly deep league.

Does that mean you bench Tet McMillan? Nope. Bryce can have a “meh” game and still put enough up in the box score for Tet to have a good game. And I don’t see Bryce having a good game unless Tet does.

🐴 After having a great day against the Dolphins, I’m O.U.T. on Michael Pittman this week. Why? Two words: Patrick Surtain. I’d be willing to start Josh Downs and Tyler Warren against the Denver defense because they work a different part of the field, but I’m not fully confident in Downs, sadly. I need to see a bigger target share and workload from him. He’s got the talent to have a great year, but sadly, he just might be typecast. And that’s something I didn’t consider in the preseason. But, it’s only been a week!

A lot of people are going to be on Hollywood Brown this week after his 16-target game against the Chargers, but for those who need a sleeper target (and he will be brought up again below), JuJu Smith-Schuster is interesting. He’s done good things when two things have aligned: the Chiefs need him, and he’s healthy. 🏹

⚔ The last time JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. faced off was in the CFB championship when McCarthy won a title with Michigan. I’m feeling McCarthy will win yet again on Sunday. He’s got new dad vibes, so he’s on a high (though whew, later this season will be a GRIND with getting enough sleep!). Oh, and he has some elite weapons and defense helping him out, too. Penix has weapons of his own on offense, but his team’s defense is not as formidable of an opponent.

🔴 Travis Etienne ran wild over the Panthers last week. James Conner faces them Sunday and is in a prime spot to put up 17+ points against them this week.

🦁 Another fun matchup will be the Lions vs their former OC Ben Johnson. I know this is a fantasy football newsletter, but the primary things I want to watch for aren’t directly fantasy related. They will impact fantasy, but I can’t help but wonder, what if this game sputters out? What if the marriage of Ben Johnson and the Lions’ weapons was the perfect one, and he doesn’t have the personnel in Chicago to make it work? Is Caleb Williams that great or just another “good but not what was promised” guy? Can the Lions bounce back after being trounced? One of these teams is going to be 0-2 after this week. And there will be a lot of questions surrounding whoever loses. 🐻