I’ll admit I’m cheating a bit this weekend with the newsletter. It’s basically a throwback to a newsletter I did last year before the draft. My wife is out of town this weekend, so I have the kids to myself, and the car decided to break down. So my days have been looong. Forgive me, please. For those of you who are just now joining me and the newsletter, I imagine this isn’t the content you thought you’d get in the offseason. And this isn’t what I thought this offseason would throw at me! But all you can do is roll with the punches, right?
Though the data presented in the charts below are a year old, it’s still largely relevant. Most of the data points didn’t change all that much, at least significantly enough to shift years of trends. And while it won’t be reflected in the numbers, I will mention some of the 2025 class in this conversation. So just keep that in mind.
Quarterbacks
Since 2014, there have been 81 quarterbacks drafted into the NFL. I took those 81 and grouped them into their respective draft round, then looked at every Top-24 season since 2014 to see how these QBs fared compared to their draft capital.
Instead of going through and mentioning every single round and how picks fared, I’m going to focus on two main groups: Round 1 QBs and Round 2-7 QBs. Here are the results:
There are some things I should note. First off, you probably noticed that 14, 20, 25, and 27 add up to a lot more than 36. To clarify, 27 of the 36 Round 1 QBs had at least a Top-24 season, and 25 had at least a Top-18 season, and so on.
Secondly, Top-18 and Top-24 quarterbacks are mainly for superflex leagues, and the majority of redraft leagues aren’t that (however, it’s very popular in dynasty), but I figured it was worth including them.
Almost all of the quarterbacks who had success who were drafted after Round 1 were Round 2 or 3 selections. After Round 3, the only quarterbacks who had any sort of meaningful relevance were Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.
Teams that spend up at quarterback often have a dire need at the position and are looking to change their fortunes. Some notable exceptions might include Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Michael Penix, whose teams had them sit most or all of their rookie year (Jordan Love sat for multiple). But for most, the quarterback they select is the QB they hope will change their future, and they deem him good enough to start from day one. Because teams have so much invested in them, they get multiple chances to become what a team hopes they can be.
That isn’t the case for later-round quarterbacks. Often, they are career backups or are out of the league fairly quickly. Even for Round 2 quarterbacks, the chances of becoming a franchise player are slim. Of the six drafted in the first round since 2014, only Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr have had fantasy-relevant careers (we shall see with Tyler Shough). The others are Will Levis, Drew Lock, DeShone Kizer, and Jimmy Garoppolo. 😬
2026 Note: Fernando Mendoza is the presumed No.1 pick, naturally putting him in the first round. We will see how he can manage with the Raiders new coaching staff. Ty Simpson is a first-round hopeful, but not a guarantee. Given his struggles and lack of starting experience, finding himself selected Day 2 or later means he’s likely seen as a project QB at best. I don’t expect much fantasy relevance out of the other QBs in this class.
Running Backs
For running backs, I didn’t go back quite as far as 2014 for this study, though maybe in the future, that’s not a bad idea. Our running back data goes back to 2018, giving us a sample of 141 drafted running backs. I did change up how I grouped them. Unlike the QBs, I separated them into RB1s, RB2s, and RB3s.
Here is their data at a glance:
The first thing that jumps off the board for me is probably the first thing that jumps off for most: if you are a first-round running back, you have a very good chance at becoming an RB1 for fantasy. The only running backs who failed to have at least one RB2 season were Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny.
The point is that Day 1 running backs are very good bets for fantasy. And the same goes for Day 2 RBs. The RB1 chances aren’t nearly as high, but the RB2 hit rate is nothing to scoff at. In this range, we see guys like Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Quinshon Judkins, Brian Robinson, and David Montgomery. On the low side, there are busts like Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, Trey Sermon, and Kaleb Johnson. It’s a mixed bag, but overall, it’s still a good sign that a running back was taken on Day 2. Because after that, the cliff looms large.
Of the 95 running backs taken on Day 3 since 2018, only four ever became RB1s. Those four are Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Kyren Williams, and Chase Brown. Less than 10% became RB2s, and only 17% had an RB3 season or better. Simply put, the chances of a running back taken on Day 3 becoming anything for fantasy is slim.
The reason for that is teams that take a flier on a running back on Day 3 simply don’t have much invested in them. The team is not committed to them and is not as eager to see how their investment pays off like they would a Day 1 or Day 2 selection.
2026 Note: We had a crazy deep 2025 class, leading to guys like Cam Skattebo falling in the draft, but also Bhayshul Tuten and Woody Marks showed they could produce given the chance. But we had misses too, like Trevor Etienne. As for 2026, Jeremiyah Love looks like a locked and loaded guy. On Day 2, we are looking at Jadarian Price, Jonah Coleman, Mike Washington, and Emmett Johnson. The class falls off after that, but we could see some interesting names pop up for some NFL success (Nic Singleton, Kaytron Allen, J’Mari Taylor).
Wide Receivers
In total, we have 192 receivers. I have listed them where a player just has to achieve a single WR1, 2, or 3 season since being drafted in order to count in those columns. So a player might be awful for most of their career but still have a WR3 season in one of them, congrats, they made the count as a WR3! Here’s the snapshot of how receivers turned out by round:
Round 1 talents end up about how we would expect; they’re usually the best bets to produce for fantasy, and the results show just that.
😢 The ones I can confidently say are misses are guys like: Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, N’Keal Harry, Khadarius Toney, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks.
Then you have a tier of could be/probably good populated by the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr and Rome Odunze (who have still had decent careers up to this point, but disappointments for fantasy/our expectations of them coming into the NFL).
What’s also important to note is that a lot of Day 1 talents produce very early in their careers. Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas Jr, Justin Jefferson, and Tetairoa McMillan all produced WR1 numbers in their first year (all happened to go to LSU). Others like CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all had a WR2 season or better within their first two seasons. 🚀
Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) gets a little dicey, but the hit rates are still fairly good. Having a good grip on prospects will help you avoid some of the misses. I will admit the third round hit rate, or lack thereof, surprised me.
I’m going to lump Day 3 prospects into one big group here, despite having them broken down by round in the graphic above. It’s not pretty for them. A total of 101 receivers were drafted on Day 3 since 2019, and only three have had at least one WR1 season. Those three are Amon-Ra St.Brown, Puka Nacua, and Hunter Renfrow. If you expand the parameter from WR1 to having at least one WR3 season, then there are only 6 (including the three names above) among the Day 3 selections.
🔎 What’s interesting to note is that among the wideouts drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds, Jauan Jennings is the only one of the fifty-eight to ever put up a WR3 season or better.
2026 Note: We could see a crazy amount of WRs in the first few rounds, with six currently projected to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft next week. I doubt that happens, but maybe! There are also a lot projected to go on Day 2, such as Germie Bernard, Chris Bell, Chris Brazzell, Malachi Fields, Ted Hurst, and Elijah Sarratt.
Fun Observation
One more thing I would like to note, running backs, at least from what I have studied, hit better than same-day wide receivers. 🤔
Usually, running backs that are selected on Day 1 are coming into a situation conducive to fantasy production. There are also fewer of them compared to receivers, which does impact the hit rates to an extent. Either way, a running back is largely given work; a receiver has to earn it. So that’s part of the reason running backs hit at a higher rate than same-day receivers.
However, in rookie drafts for dynasty leagues and redraft leagues this summer, if you are choosing between a Day 2 receiver and a Day 3 running back, the advantage goes to the receiver (though not always). If you’re choosing between a Day 1 receiver and a Day 2 running back, the upside is with the receiver. You are more likely to get a WR1 season than an RB1 season between those two players.
Basically, comparing identical days? Advantage running back. Comparing a later-day running back to an earlier-day receiver? Advantage receiver. Of course, that is the 10,000-foot view, and you should always consider team context, the player himself, etc. But in general, that is a good rule to follow.
That’s all for this week. Next time, we will be talking about first round reactions! The NFL Draft is almost here!