Hello everyone! So this week, much like last week, is going to be a shorter newsletter. I’ve had family in town and have been under the weather, so writing admittedly hasn’t been top priority! I want to ask for your forgiveness. I don’t expect this to be the norm!
📼 Week 6 Rewind and Stats to Know
⛏ With 46 receptions this year, Christian McCaffrey is second in the NFL in receptions. Not among running backs, the entire NFL. He’s also eighth in receiving yards. Using just his receiving numbers, he would be the overall WR6 in PPG.
After being outside of WR3 territory from Weeks 1-3, Brian Thomas Jr. has been inside of WR3 territory for three straight weeks and is the WR17 in PPR PPG.
Justin Fields is second among qualified QBs in % of points from rushing with 45%. The QB with the highest percentage of points from rushing? Jaxson Dart with 47%.
⚡ It was against Miami, but it’s worth noting that Tre Harris saw a massive, season-high increase in snaps and routes run in Week 6. It didn’t amount to much in fantasy, but a 5-4-27 line isn’t nothing. Quentin Johnston didn’t play last week, and that was likely part of it, but let’s also consider that Keenan Allen has also slowed down a lot over the last three weeks. If Allen continues to fall off, Harris could step in as the WR3 towards the end of the year.
Week 7 Preview
Mention last week’s callouts, whether good or bad. Go into some sort of detail, mention process and/or result.
🟠 In the last few weeks, Miami has given up 19 carries for 108 yards to James Cook, 14 for 81 to Breece Hall, 23 for 206 to Rico Dowdle, and 18 for 124 to Kimani Vidal. They are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the last three weeks and the most in away games in 2025. This week, they get Quinshon Judkins, who is averaging 4.6 YPC for Cleveland this year. It’s worth mentioning that the Browns are somehow favored in this game and that this game is forecasted for 50-60 mph wind gusts at the time of writing.
🐬 While we’re on the subject, De’Von Achane is in for a rough week against Cleveland. Their defense isn’t giving up much to running backs, no matter how you slice it. You’re still starting him as one of the main options in the Miami offense, but temper expectations.
🔵 AJ Barner has been on a heater the last three weeks. Among TEs, he is tied for eighth in receptions, seventh in yards, and has three TDs, and very usable for fantasy. The problem is that Barner faces a Houston defense that has been very good at limiting tight ends in 2025.
🔴 In his last four games against Las Vegas, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 18.09 PPG. In 14 total games against them in his career, he’s gone over 20 points eight times. This season, Mahomes is running more than in previous years, is averaging 24.8 PPG, and has Rashee Rice back. Everything looks like wheels up for Mahomes in this matchup.
Speaking of Rashee Rice, he’s in a great spot for his return. Vegas is allowing the sixth most points to receivers in 2025.
Final Chief mention, I promise. Isiah Pacheco is a very interesting case study in 2025. He’s averaging 4.2 YPC, not bad. He’s fourth among running backs in success rate, which is good. He also leads the Chiefs’ running backs in targets. However, he has just 6 runs of 10+ yards, and a season-long of 16. He’s getting killed by a lack of volume overall. Give him 15-18 touches, and I think he’s having a solid game. It’s just whether or not the Chiefs will trust him with that workload or not. 🏹
🎖 Jacory Croskey-Merritt gets a fantastic matchup this weekend against Dallas, who are giving up points to running backs in spades. For what it’s worth, he leads all NFL running backs with a 65% rush success rate.
🐏 Somehow, Davante Adams has 13 targets in the red zone this year and only two receptions. Thankfully, both were touchdowns. The Rams are doing their best to get Adams the ball near the goal line. Based on his red zone usage, he’s over a touchdown below expectation. With Puka Nacua likely out, they’re going to need to force the ball his way even more.
🇺🇸 The Titans being one of the best matchups for running backs is great news for fantasy managers. The bad news is they play New England, the backfield we can’t trust. I can’t find it in me to trust Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson against them.
☠ Michael Mayer might find himself in a rough spot against the Chiefs this weekend. Kansas City is an awful matchup for tight ends, and Geno Smith could find himself under duress against a Chiefs team that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the league.
🔵 I fully expect Jaxson Dart to fare better against Denver than Justin Fields did last week, but it’s fair to bring up again how good Denver’s rushing defense has been. After Week 6, they went from allowing 3 YPG to 7.7 YPG.
🧀 Matthew Golden had a career high in receiving yards in Week 6, and now faces a beatable Cardinals secondary. What’s important to note is that Golden didn’t see a notable bump in usage. But he’s averaging five targets per game over the last three weeks, and has 6 total carries in that same stretch.
🦅 The Vikings are clamping down on receivers, allowing just 97 YPG to the position each week. The next closest team is Carolina at 119. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have their work cut out for them. Can they beat the Vikings’ secondary because they are talented receivers? Of course. But do we need to temper expectations? Probably (which is saying something, given their start).
🔴 Scott Barrett has a great tweet about Drake London with and without Darnell Mooney, and the numbers are drastic. Mooney is questionable for Sunday, and when Mooney is in the lineup for a full game, their yardage numbers are nearly identical. London is by no means worse than Mooney, but Mooney is no slouch. If Mooney plays on Sunday, he’s a fine flex play, and London is in high-end WR2 territory. If Mooney is out, London is likely going off yet again.
That’s going to do it for today. Thanks for stopping by, and I will see you again soon!
