The newsletter is going to be a bit shorter this week. With work and personal schedule being very busy this week, and writing this during the Thursday Night Football, I’m having to cut a couple of things out in the interest of, well, getting some rest! I still plan on keeping segments like Preemptive Pickups and Picks From a Rookie, we will just pick it up next week!
📼 Week 5 Rewind and Stats to Know
➡ I don’t take credit for finding this data nugget, but the podcast I heard this from was referencing a screenshot of a tweet. So whoever first found this stat, I thank you. In lieu of the original post, I used FantasyPros stats to find the numbers. The rushing leaders for Week 5 were:
Rico Dowdle - 203 yds
Javonte Williams - 135
Rico Dowdle after contact - 119
Breece Hall - 113
Jacorey Croskey-Merritt - 111
Quinshon Judkins - 110
Javonte Williams after contact - 87 yds
🔥 The top three tight ends in redzone production the past two weeks are AJ Barner, Theo Johnson, and Darren Waller. Johnson is tied for the most redzone targets in the NFL in Weeks 4-5 with five. Who is he tied with? JuJu Smith-Schuster.
🟠 Speaking of Javonte Williams, he and David Montgomery rank first and second in RYOE according to Next Gen Stats. Would you like to guess who is third? Quinshon Judkins. What’s crazy is he’s also had one fewer game, and he’s also facing 8+ defenders in the box on 47% of his carries, the highest rate in the NFL.
Former Bengals starter Jake Browning leads the league in INT rate. New Bengals QB Joe Flacco is fourth.
Kyren Williams has more redzone receiving touchdowns, 3, than rushing touchdowns, 1.
Week 6 Preview
Isaiah Bond was a miss last week, but I think this process was fairly sound. He led Cleveland receivers in targets, but just didn’t connect. 🤷 I mentioned Michael Carter as a start, and I’m very glad I did. Brenton Strange, Elic Aymanor, and Woody Marks all disappointed for various reasons. My guess is it’s because the AFC South hates me. Overall, the Week 5 preview was rough. But today is a new day.
✈ I also won’t take credit for finding this stat, but to my shame, I can’t remember who originally posted it. But I wanted to share it regardless! Justin Fields is averaging 51 rushing yards per game, the most among NFL QBs. Denver, on the other hand, is allowing a league-low 3 rushing yards a game to QBs. (And now to my own spin on this stat) That’s despite facing Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, and Justin Herbert (Hurts and Herbert rank in the top 10 in rushing yards among QBs, and Jones is historically a running QB as well).
🔵 Despite entering the league as a slot player and playing there on the majority of his snaps in his first two seasons, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now primarily used as an outside receiver. Most importantly, it’s working. And even better, he faces Jacksonville, the second-best matchup for receivers lined up out wide.
Everyone is going to tell you to start Tetairoa McMillan against Dallas. And so will I. The crime I want to note while I’m talking about TMac, he has as many redzone targets as Xavier Legette, Chimere Dike, and Dyami Brown. Carolina, what are we doing here? 🐈⬛
🐬 The Chargers haven’t been a great matchup for tight ends this season. But Darren Waller has racked up a 25% target rate in 2025 and looks like Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite red-zone target with Tyreek Hill out for the year.
🏴☠ With Bucky Irving looking likely to miss yet again, Rachaad White should be primed for another good game against San Francisco. White has eight total catches in the past two weeks, and the 49ers have allowed the fourth most receptions to running backs this season.
Zay Flowers has at least 72 yards in four of five games this season. The Rams are going to absolutely destroy a decimated Ravens defense, which will force the Ravens to throw. The Rams’ defense is an average matchup for receivers, so Flowers should be able to find room to work in a likely negative game script. 🟣
We get two defenses that are worth streaming this week in the same game. First off, the Raiders haven’t been that great at getting pressure. However, Cam Ward has been sacked a league-high 19 times. He’s turned the ball over some as well, but to his credit, his INT rate is better than league average.
Secondly, the Titans’ defense is worse than the Raiders’ in pressure rate. And on the surface, Geno Smith hasn’t been pressured much. But looking deeper, he’s taking a sack on 55% of the pressures he’s faced, leading to a total of 16 sacks. He’s also leading the league with 9 interceptions, another good reason to start the Titans’ defense if you need a streamer. 🔥
🧀 Please start your Green Bay players this week against Cincinnati. Josh Jacobs especially is in a smash spot against a Bengals’ defense that is allowing the most points to running backs.
⛏ Christian McCaffrey has 21 rushing attempts in the red zone. He’s the only running back with more than 20 RZ attempts who doesn’t have four rushing scores. That won’t get any easier against a solid Tampa run defense, but he’s due.
You’re not going to sit James Cook, but it’s worth noting that Atlanta has been the worst matchup for running backs this season. And the running backs they’ve faced aren’t half bad: Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and Jacorey Croskey-Merritt. It’s not an incredible lineup, but solid. 🦬
It’s also worth noting that Atlanta has allowed a total of 8 receptions for 69 yards to tight ends this season. Not last week, not over two weeks, through four games. Dalton Kincaid might have a tougher time finding space on Monday night. Oh, and the Bills have been the second-worst matchup for TEs, so Kyle Pitts might have issues, too. 🔴
🇺🇸 In the last two weeks, Stefon Diggs has racked up 90 YAC and 247 total yards. He gets the Saints this week, who have allowed the eighth most YAC in the NFL. Yes, I’ve harped on D.K. Metcalf’s crazy YAC, but I also gave him his flowers and highlighted a YAC matchup for him back in Week 3. He ended up getting 72% of his yards after the catch that week (ok, ok, it was 23 YAC but hey, #trusttheprocess). At least he had a TD!
🟠 Pittsburgh has been bringing pressure to QBs at a high rate this season, and that could hurt Dillon Gabriel. Not that you were starting him, but it’s the pass catchers I’m concerned about. Gabriel had a low ADOT in his first start, but part of that could be due to playing Minnesota and its premier defense. Pittsburgh isn’t Minnesota, but they aren’t slouches. If Pittsburgh is able to bring pressure yet still giving up yards, I expect the short game to be in play for Cleveland. Isaiah Bond led the receivers in targets last week, but he’s primarily a deep threat. That’s where David Njoku and Harold Fannin come in. Pittsburgh is the fourth-best matchup for tight ends on the season, and I think this duo can exploit that.
Make sure to join the Discord where you can chat any time, and I will be glad to answer any start-sit or trade questions you have! Let’s have some fun. 😁
That’s going to do it for today. Thank you so much for reading! I hope you got something out of this, learned something new, and feel more prepared for Sunday. I will see you again soon!