Thursday night started off a bit slow, but man, that fourth quarter was good! And I’m totally not upset I benched Zach Charbonnet in a league. Ok, it was a good game on his part, but his second touchdown being called back helped me not be completely distraught.
I’m very curious to see what that game meant for Marvin Harrison Jr. He was obviously struggling with effort, timing, and hands. But he made some big plays down the stretch, and you saw the effect it had on him. He found effort. He found rhythm. But it was a loss. Does that reset things for him? Or has he found that motivation and confidence he needed? Time will tell.
📼 Week 3 Rewind and Stats to Know
With the weekly rewind, it’s important to know that not all of these stats are meant to give fantasy advice. They can be, but this section is largely meant to give you information that you can use however you desire. Our first stat is a great example. You can use it as a way of saying “he’ll bounce back because it’s not all on him,” or “I’m benching him for now while this all gets sorted out,” or “I want no part of this offense”.
We will take a look at other Jaguars in our next sections, but right now, let’s look at Trevor Lawrence. According to Next Gen Stats, Lawrence has the worst completion percentage over expected at -10.8. But let’s look further. Looking at FantasyPros, Lawrence has 14 poor throws, which surprisingly places him at right about average. But he also leads the league with 14 drops by receivers, six more than Cam Ward in second and double Dak Prescott in third.
These next two could be moved to the next section, but I’ll mention them here. Quentin Johnston has accumulated at least 71 yards in every game thus far. He faces the Giants next, who have allowed the second-most yards to wideouts this season.
Meanwhile, DK Metcalf has gone for 20 and 32 yards in the last two weeks. His opponent, Minnesota, has allowed the second-fewest yards to wideouts so far. I think this is the third week in a row he’s been up in this section. I apologize! 😆
Spencer Rattler is averaging more PPG than Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, and Michael Penix.
Week 4 Preview
Briefly touching on some of the bullet points from last week, Carson Wentz had a fine Minnesota debut. Tony Pollard wasn’t a sit, but I did have him as an RB3, and he got a TD, saving his day. Elic Ayomanor continued to impress, and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith finally got back on track. So I feel really good about those call-outs. On the downside, Josh Jacobs did a lot worse on the ground than I expected, but he was saved by 5 receptions. Quinshon Judkins also had a really good performance after I was scared to start him. Overall, I feel pretty good about what I brought up last week! Now let’s get into Week 4!
Jaxson Dart has the privilege of facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers in his first start. The Chargers are pressuring QBs at the tenth-highest rate in the league and have given up a touchdown at the second-lowest rate. They’ve been elite in nearly every stat category I can see. I expect the Giants to play decently fast and try to get the ball out of his hands quickly, so we will see how he holds up. 🔵
🦁 Detroit has the fourth most rushing yards as a team through Week 3. Cleveland has allowed a league low 128 rushing yards to running backs. They are more generous through the air, but it’s not a big weakness either. So who wins out? Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery? Or the Cleveland defense once again? You aren’t sitting either one more than likely, but temper expectations.
While I’m perfectly fine starting Quinshon Judkins, I also want to point out Harold Fannin Jr. He leads the Browns’ primary pass-catching options in YPRR, is the team leader in receiving yards, and Detroit has been a great matchup for tight ends so far this year. To be fair, Fannin has seen his yardage total drop each week, but so has Jerry Jeudy, and Njoku has stayed roughly the same. Even with that extra bit of context in mind, I think Fannin is a good streamer this week.
🐆 Right now, I can’t advise you to start Brian Thomas Jr., but what I can say is to give him some time. He has a ton of unrealized air yards to his name, thanks to the number of drops on his part and bad throws from Trevor Lawrence. I do think this offense can figure it out; it just might take time. It might not be this week. It could be 3 weeks from now. I don’t know. But don’t drop him. Bench him for now and wait for improvement.
🐴 Start your Colts this week: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, and even Josh Downs. Downs especially hasn’t gotten off to a hot start, but his one good game came when the Colts were being pushed to score by Denver. The Rams can certainly keep pace with Indy given their weapons on offense. It’s currently the highest projected scoring game on the slate, so I’m expecting a good game here for most everyone.
🐏 In turn, start your Rams. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams (if he plays). Blake Corum can also be flexed in desperate situations.
Does anyone want to take a guess on who leads the NFL in broken tackles? It’s Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has been labeled as a bust for fantasy, and I think that is an unfair label. His offensive line play is offensive. He’s the leader in broken tackles, but also tied for second in most tackles for a loss in the league behind only Chase Brown and tied with Saquon Barkley. Barkley is interesting here, but Brown is not a surprise given Cincy can’t stop a stiff breeze. Jeanty has more 10+ yard runs than Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving, and Alvin Kamara. Jeanty is a good running back. Chicago is the sixth easiest matchup for running backs over three weeks, so maybe he finds a little more running room on Sunday. ☠
🔥 Chig Okonkwo has had at least six targets and four receptions for two straight weeks. Chig himself has had drop issues much like the rest of the Titans’ offense, but he’s provided QB Cam Ward with a safety blanket underneath. Case in point, his ADOT is 4.3 yards compared to Elic Ayomanor's 13.4 and Calvin Ridley’s 11.2. But don’t let the short ADOT fool you. He’s averaging 7.2 YAC and is actually leading the Titans in receptions and receiving yards. Houston isn’t a great matchup for TEs at first glance, but considering the Rams and Bucs don’t heavily involve their TEs and they just allowed 6 rec-61 yds to Brenton Strange, I think it might be a better matchup than it appears.
Now, if you ask me about any other player in that Titans-Texans game, unless their name is Nico Collins or Elic Ayomanor, they are a sit for me. Tony Pollard is tough to trust against the Texans’ D, and Calvin Ridley forgot how to catch. Ayomanor shouldn’t have to deal with top CB coverage, so he’s a decent sleeper. He’s also a fixture in my Preemptive Pickups until people catch on!
He’s not been as elite as Ashton Jeanty in the broken tackle department, but Omarion Hampton has still been elite. Among all running backs with 30+ attempts, Hampton ranks third in broken tackles per attempt. ⚡
⚔ Jordan Mason is third in the NFL in rush success rate, averaging 5.4 YPC, fifth in rush yards over expected (Stathead and Next Gen Stats). Mason was fantastic against the Bengals on Sunday, and now faces a Steelers defense that hasn’t been as elite as we expected to begin 2025 and has been an above-average matchup so far for RBs.
🐴 Did you know J.K. Dobbins is averaging the most rushing yards per game of his career in 2025? He’s also fourth-best in YAC/Att, which is not something I thought I’d be saying after the Broncos drafted RJ Harvey. Harvey is just a bench stash for the moment, but Dobbins should be started weekly. Oh, and Denver plays Cincinnati on Monday, who have given up the third most points to RBs this season.
Dallas shows up as a bit of a “meh” matchup for tight ends, but that’s not going to keep anyone from starting Tucker Kraft. Philadelphia had success using Dallas Goedert in Week 1, and New York and Chicago just haven’t used their tight ends very much this year. 🧀
🤠 Meanwhile, Green Bay has been a great matchup for tight ends this year. Jake Ferguson is going to eat this week with CeeDee Lamb out and George Pickens taking on the primary outside option.
🐯 On Monday, I am starting Ja’Marr Chase against the Broncos because I have to, and that’s it. I can’t suggest starting Chase Brown, no matter his volume. It’s not led to anything. Jake Browning needs to show a sign of life before I regain any confidence in this Bengals offense.
🐬 Miami has an awful secondary and has given up the second-most points to QBs this season. If he plays, I would start Justin Fields with confidence. The Dolphins have also allowed three rushing scores to QBs as well, and Fields is arguably the most dynamic rusher of the QBs the Dolphins have faced (Josh Allen is more powerful, but Fields is more dynamic in my opinion). Also, start Garrett Wilson as well.
From Week 2, I called out Daniel Jones and Geno Smith at QB. Jones has been great! Geno? So-so. Brenton Strange made the list again today, so good for him. Tanner Conner has been nothing since Week 1. The only receiver I’ve really hit is Calvin Austin, but he’s been up and down as well. Dylan Sampson took a nose dive with Quinshon Judkins back, so I’m giving myself a bit of a pass there because of Judkins’ uncertainty. Jeremy McNichols is too soon to know, but he had a nice TD run!
Our Preemptive Pickups of the Week:
Sam Darnold (just played TNF, next: TB, JAC), Bryce Young (NE, MIA, DAL)
Kenneth Gainwell (MIN, Bye, CLE, CIN), Blake Corum (IND, SF, BAL)
Elic Ayomanor (HOU, ARI, LV), Calvin Austin (MIN, Bye, CLE, CIN), KaVonte Turpin (GB, NYJ, CAR)
Chig Okonkwo (HOU, ARI, LV), Brenton Strange (SF, KC, SEA), Cade Otton (PHI, SEA, SF)
I know Otton is a gross name. But he’s done well when was a primary option for Baker Mayfield. Chris Godwin is practicing, but he still might be out for a few weeks. With Mike Evans also missing time and Emeka Egbuka banged up himself, Otton might be a decent streamer for those in need.
Strange gets Seattle after a rough matchup against Kansas City, and Seattle has given up the most PPG to tight ends this season.
I wanted to make a note to everyone: if you tried to join the Discord before and the link didn’t work, I apologize. It expires after a certain period of time for security reasons, and I may have overlooked it in my previous newsletter, sending it out without having an updated link. I’d love to see you in Discord. If you’ve got a start-sit or trade question, or just anything in general, coming to the RotoBanter Discord is a great way to get in touch!
That’s going to do it for today. Thanks for stopping by, and I will see you again soon!