🔥 I want to share an interesting chart I found of Cam Ward. For those who don’t have X or want TLDR, he went from the bottom left corner of the chart to the center, a massive improvement after the coaching change in TN.

🟣 On the opposite end of things, JJ McCarthy is now dealing with a concussion, and so far is one of the worst rookie-ish QBs we’ve ever seen. There are 23 QBs since 1990 with at least 125 passing attempts in a season and a sack rate above 8%, Success Rate below 40%, and Poor Throw rate above 18% (McCarthy is far worse in all of them). He is sixth-worst in sack rate, seventh-worst in success rate (tied with Josh Rosen and one behind Bryce Young), and fourth-worst in bad throw percentage, and the worst INT rate and second-worst on target rate to boot.

🏴‍☠ I won’t take full credit for this, but JJ Zachariason mentioned Emeka Egbuka and his catchable targets in his 10 Trends episode this week, and I wanted to take a look myself. Since Week 6, Egbuka’s catchable target rate has fallen from 74% to 47%. The numbers quite literally flipped. That’s not going to cut it for fantasy, and it’s why he’s been struggling. Baker Mayfield has seen his completion percentage in that time drop from 65% to 60% (granted, a bad game against the Rams while being injured didn’t help matters).

🐻 While we’re on the subject, Rome Odunze is having his own issues with catchable targets, his CTR falling from 65.7% to 47%. I doubt the continuing emergence of Luther Burd and Colston Loveland is negatively affecting him. He’s still getting the targets; this just might be a thing where Caleb Williams is struggling to get him the ball, and HC Ben Johnson needs to scheme up some easier touches for Rome.

🧀 Christian Watson has seen his target share steadily rise since returning from injury. First, it was 10.8% twice, then 11% (a marginal improvement for sure), then 21% and finally a 33% target share in Week 12. I don’t expect it to continue to rise, but he’s been the most consistent threat for the Packers since returning. Detroit isn’t an easy matchup, but he could make things work.

🤠 I was not a fan of George Pickens to start this season. But he’s forcing me to change my opinion with his play. We just saw the Chiefs shut down the Colts’ receivers, but they aren’t on the level of Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. Pickens is the WR4 on the season in PPG with 20, and Lamb is at 17 PPG if you discount the game he left after a few snaps. Fire both up against KC. 🔵

🏹 I can’t pull myself to start a Chiefs running back. The Cowboys’ rushing defense has been noticeably better since the trade deadline and between Kareem Hunt, Isaiah Pacheco, and Brashard Smith, I can’t pick one out that I can confidently start.

🐦 When the Ravens and Bengals duke it out on Thanksgiving night, I fully expect Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry to have vintage games. The Bengals have allowed six more touchdowns and 163 more receiving yards than any other team to tight ends this year. Isaiah Likely is a decent sleeper and can house any catch thanks to his athleticism.

For Henry, the Bengals are not just the best matchup for tight ends, but they are for running backs as well. I’ll note that Cincy gives up a bunch in the receiving game to running backs, which isn’t Henry’s forte. But, Justice Hill might be a sleeper for those in deep leagues.

One thing I want to mention about Zay Flowers. He’s been incredibly consistent, though not spectacular. Cincinnati has done fairly well limiting team WR1s, largely thanks to the play of DJ Turner. Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, and Rome Odunze have struggled against them to varying degrees. Of course, not every WR1 has had the same problem against Cincy, but it is something to consider given Flowers’ limited upside.

🐻 Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have started to come into their own in recent weeks, as noted by JJ Zacharison below. Burden still has a ways to go to be truly fantasy relevant, but since he started getting the majority of the snaps, Loveland has been the fantasy TE4.

🔥 Don’t look now, but Chimere Dike has been the WR25 in PPG since Week 7. That’s a little cherry-picked since he first started having a +50% route share in Week 6, but it’s still cool. In away games this year, Jacksonville allows the third-most passing yards per game to opponents. Not only that, but the Jaguars are a top-half matchup for pass-catching running backs, giving Tyjae Spears a boost this weekend. Spears is just inside RB3 territory in PPG since Week 6, largely kept afloat by his receiving work.

🟠 Against the Raiders in Shedeur Sanders’ first start, Harold Fannin garnered a 30% target share. The 49ers might give Sanders more fits than Vegas, but their defense isn’t impenetrable. They’re tied for second most touchdowns allowed to TEs and are top half in receptions and yards allowed.

🐮 Jayden Higgins has been a fringe WR3 for a little over a month now, outscoring guys like DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Xavier Worthy, and Jordan Addison in PPG. His services will be needed against Indy on Sunday as the Texans look to keep their playoff hopes alive. 🔴

⛪ Somehow, someway, the Dolphins’ defense has given up the fewest yards to wide receivers in the NFL and the fourth-fewest receptions. As crazy as that stat might sound, it helps to know they’ve faced the fifth-lowest pass rate in the NFL. Teams simply opt to run on Miami (they’ve faced 317 pass attempts to 317 rushing attempts while on defense). They also allow a league-high 73% completion percentage. All of this is to say, I’m not scared off of Chris Olave on Sunday. He’s been a PPR machine, and the Saints have no running game unless Devin Neal turns out to be amazing.

Also, Miami is a good TE matchup. Give Juwan Johnson a go if you need a TE. Since Week 7, Johnson is putting up 13 PPR PPG.

🏴‍☠ In his first game back from injury, Chris Godwin ran a route on 47% of the Bucs dropbacks. In his previous two games this year, his route participation was up closer to 90%. Given his injuries I expect a ramp-up period, but against a softer matchup against Arizona on Sunday, I think he can make a part-time role work. Quick note: here’s to hoping Bucky Irving returns. If not, go ahead and give Sean Tucker another try.

At the time of writing, I have no idea if Marvin Harrison Jr. will play on Sunday. If he does, go ahead and fire him up as well as Michael Wilson. If Harrison sits, Wilson is near a must start unless you are loaded, and Greg Dortch remains a solid WR3 option. 🔴

Against the Rams, the only Panthers I really want to start are Tetairoa McMillan and Rico Dowdle. After that? Get out. Dowdle has still been a solid RB1 option over the last month after having a down game in Week 8 when the Panthers got throttled by Buffalo. In that same time frame, TMac is a fantasy WR1 in his own right.

⚔ I’m incredibly curious how Max Brosmer is going to do this week. I don’t expect him to be a long-term answer in Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell’s system has been very QB-friendly over the years, and if he comes out and puts up a decent game, what does that say about JJ McCarthy? I don’t think the Vikings can go back to McCarthy unless Brosmer is completely awful. Longer term, I wonder if McCarthy is done. It would not shock me if we see the Vikings make a trade this offseason for a QB.

⚡ I am praying Omarion Hampton comes back from IR this week to play against the Raiders. Sadly, he doesn’t have much of an offensive line to run behind if he does. But, he’s a capable pass catcher and can rack up some receptions. If he can’t go, the Kimani Vidal Pattern says Kimani Vidal should work as an RB2 play this week, given he was awful last time out. ⚡

🐴 It did my soul some good seeing Pat Bryant get six targets and have himself a game against Kansas City before the Broncos’ bye. But it’s important to note, his 6 targets amounted to just a 16% target share. He will need more if he is to continue to rise. On the bright side, it looks like he is now the WR3 of the offense over Marvin Mims.

🟠 Second note on Denver, RJ Harvey can be started this week against Washington. They are a top-5 matchup for running backs, and despite Harvey's disappointing performance against KC in Week 11, it’s important to remember that the Chiefs boast a top-5 rushing defense, and not bottom five like Harvey is about to face.