To preface this, what follows isn’t totally actionable for fantasy football. However, when writing this newsletter, I found something I wanted to share with you.
He’s had a rough stretch in the last two games, but for the most part this season, we’ve loved Sam Darnold and what we’ve seen from him in Seattle. But, would you like to guess who has more points per game this season between him and Trevor Lawrence? It’s TLaw. Lawrence has one fewer total touchdowns and four fewer total turnovers. Darnold has a better TD rate for sure, twice what Lawrence has, and he’s been the more efficient passer.
But there’s one thing that truly separates their seasons. Darnold has suffered a league-low three drops from his pass catchers. Lawrence? A league high of thirty-two drops. Three Jaguars are top-10 in dropped pass percentage in the NFL: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne, and Dyami Brown. Remember how early on this year the talk was about how Cam Ward was dealing with his receivers, notably Calvin Ridley, dropping passes? Ward has endured 15 dropped passes (however, he’s having to deal with a dearth of talent, so he’s got his own problems).
Since the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers, the Jags have dropped two passes as a team. Has Meyers fixed the offense? Nope. He can’t catch passes for everyone. But, could we maybe see fewer errors by the offense because Meyers is on the field and other receivers who were dropping passes are off? Sure.
I’m gonna look like a Lawrence truther, and to be honest, I do like Lawrence a lot and have been a fan. Does he need to clean things up on his end? Of course, he’s been dreadful at times and needs to improve. Hopefully, the game against the Chargers did him some good and built confidence. Not only that, but once Brian Thomas Jr. returns, maybe the yips will finally have left him.
All that to say, let’s remember to take the player and situation as a whole as best we can when evaluating players and making our takes.
📼 Week 11 Rewind and Stats to Know
Here are some fun and interesting insights that come via surfing FantasyPros stats and advanced stats pages.
George Pickens has the second-most yards by a WR in 2025, and is the WR5 in PPG.
Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka are 6th and 10th in receiving yards among WRs and first and second among rookies.
It might not feel like it because he’s been buried in New Orleans, but Chris Olave is the WR13 in PPG.
Malik Nabers has not played since Week 4. He has as many or more touchdowns than Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Xavier Worthy, and Brian Thomas Jr.
Jonathan Taylor has more rushing yards after contact than Ashton Jeanty has rushing yards. As in total rushing yards.
Omarion Hampton is currently ninth in the NFL in broken tackles. He hasn’t played since Week 5. Ashton Jeanty ranks third with 17.
Tight end has had a resurgence this season. There are currently 9 players averaging 12 PPR PPG this season. The last time this many tight ends averaged 12+ PPG was back in 2019 when 10 TEs did it. There have been several years in between now and 2019 when we had only four tight ends average 12+ PPG.
Week 12 Preview
🟠 This is a bit of speculation, but I think Harold Fannin is an interesting start this week for those in need of a tight end. I’m honestly terrified of what Shedeur Sanders is going to look like, but Fannin was the target on Sanders’ best play of the game. Against the Raiders' defense, I expect Sanders to lean on his tight ends up close to bail him out, given his play style and the Browns’ offensive line woes.
🐴 In the last four games before the Colts’ bye, Alec Pierce was the WR20 in PPG in PPR formats. He’s having what could be one of the quietest breakouts I’ve heard of, and I think that’s largely due to a lack of touchdowns. He missed Weeks 4 and 5, but he has a 17-game pace of over 1200 yards, but just two touchdowns. He’s currently almost three TD below expectation, and given his deep ball usage, he’s primed for regression. That could come this week against Kansas City.
One more thing on the Colts matchup. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Indy, but Josh Downs is worth mentioning here. While the Chiefs are tough on outside receivers, they have been giving it up more willingly to the slot, where Downs thrives. Given his up-and-down usage, he’s a tough start, but he’s worth a look. 🔵
🇺🇸 I just want to encourage you to start Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry this week against Cincinnati. I don’t need to add much more than that. Drake “Drake Maye” Maye and Co. are going to eat this week against this defense. It sounds like Kayshon Boutte is back this week, but I also want to mention Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams. Williams has only one catch in the last two weeks (a nice 72-yard TD), so he’s a desperation start at best and should be benched to be honest, but he’s had snap shares north of 50% the last two weeks and a route share above 50% over the previous three. Hollins, meanwhile, has 15 targets for 170 yards in the last two weeks, but he could be in the most trouble with Boutte active.
🐯 According to StatMuse, Tee Higgins has averaged 6 receptions, 102 yards, and 0.6 TD a game when Ja’Marr Chase is out of the lineup. Higgins will face Christian Gonzalez a lot, but the Bengals should be able to move him around and find advantageous matchups.
🔵 Devin Singletary has had 13 carries in the red zone in full games since the Cam Skattebo injury, compared to Tyrone Tracy’s two. Further, Tracy doesn’t have a single carry inside the 15. Even with Jameis Winston starting, the offense should be able to move the ball enough to make Singletary interesting.
Flipping it over to Tyrone Tracy, despite the lack of redzone work, he actually leads Singletary in touches, 46 to 38, and is less than a point off of Singletary thanks to his receiving. Both are flex-worthy. 🔵
✈ Adonai Mitchell had plenty of his own problems in his Jets’ debut against the Patriots, dropping passes left and right. However, in his defense, they weren’t all on the money. Hopefully, the mini bye week and the switch to Tyrod Taylor this week will put more balls where Mitchell can catch them, because he has the potential to be a good receiver. And he will be needed against Baltimore. I expect Mason Taylor to be the No.2 target on Sunday (if not No.1), but Baltimore is no cakewalk matchup for tight ends, especially now that they are getting healthy. 🟢
Ja’Marr Chase? Never heard of him. You know who I have heard of, though? Michael Wilson. After exploding for 185 yards in Week 11, Wilson can say he has the most receiving yards in any game by anyone in the NFL in 2025. He now gets to face Jacksonville. Yes, they just shut down the Chargers, but they also let Houston come back from a 29-10 deficit to win the game in a single quarter. Wilson is a nice streamer yet again, and Greg Dortch is another great option as a sleeper start after going 6-66-1 last week. 🔴
Since taking the starting job back in Week 6, Jacoby Brissett is second in the league in passing yards, only five yards behind Drake Maye for the lead despite playing one less game. He’s a great start this week against Jacksonville. If we’re starting the receivers, we should probably start the QB.
🐆 We briefly mentioned him above, but Jakobi Meyers is another good flex/WR3 option this week against the Cardinals. We’ve seen plenty of receivers have a good game against the Cards, and he’s been the Jaguars. He’s had a 20% target share, tied with Parker Washington, but he’s doubled Washington’s yardage total.
☠ The one thing keeping Ashton Jeanty’s fantasy season alive is his receiving work. He ran just six times for….seven yards…against the Cowboys defense on Monday night football. However, six receptions will paper over a lot of faults, and he has five targets in each of his last three games. I fully expect him to get more than 1.2 yards per carry this week. But I don’t expect the sledding to get any easier against Myles Garrett and Co.
🦅 The Cowboys’ defense looked much improved on Monday night, but let’s not forget it was against the Raiders. I expect much stiffer competition on Sunday when they face the Eagles. AJ Brown is coming off a decent performance, and I’m fine starting him again.
DeVonta Smith shouldn’t have back-to-back weeks with just a single catch. After 16 yards in Week 1, he went for 53 in Week 2. After a 29-yard performance, he went for 114 the next week. After going for 49 yards, he followed up with a 183-yard game, becoming almost as good as Michael Wilson. He’s followed up every down game with at least a decent one the next week. 🟢
🔥 I am NOT confident in the Titans, but Cam Ward finally showed some promise against a tough Texans defense. Tyjae Spears is the only Titan I can recommend as a start, and he’s just a speculative flex play. He’s caught at least three passes in all but his first game back from injury, and with Seattle boasting a strong defense and a top-5 pressure rate, I expect Ward to dump things off often to Spears.
🔷 Who has more 10-point PPR games this season, Hunter Henry or AJ Barner? AJ Barner, correct. Now, same question, new pairing; Mark Andrews or AJ Barner? It’s Barner again. Barner has been a decent streamer this year, hitting 10+ PPR points in six of ten games. The problem has been when he doesn’t hit, he averages 1.7 PPG. The Titans aren’t an easy matchup for tight ends, but I think that’s mainly due to teams blowing them out and not needing to pass more than anything. His floor is basement level, but if you need a shot at ceiling, you can do worse than Barner.
After I recommended them as stashes back in Week 10, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers went on to be the QB35 and QB34 in PPG, respectively, in Weeks 10-11. Correct, they were worse than several backups. That, I have to say, was a hilariously abysmal call. Sometimes you just gotta laugh! 🤣 Devin Singletary has been alright without Cam Skattebo and Alec Pierce, as I mentioned above, has broken out. Theo Johnson has been fine, but Noah Fant has had too small a sample size to really evaluate.
Our Preemptive Pickups of the Week:
QB: Tyler Shough (ATL, MIA, TB)
RB: Chris Rodriguez (BYE, DEN, MIN, NYG)
WR: Jayden Higgins (IND, KC, ARI), Alec Pierce (KC, HOU, JAC)
TE: It’s thiiin out there boys…
Shough was impressive against Carolina before the Saints bye all things considered. I don’t think he’s anything more than a streamer, but he’s at least an option to be aware of. I know Higgins has already played, but his performance on Thursday has put him on the map, and he needs to be rostered.
That’s all I have for now. Thanks for stopping by, and best of luck this weekend! The fantasy playoffs are approaching fast, come home with the win!