🔴 It might sound crazy, but James Conner was tied for fourth in rushing plays that went over 10 yards in 2024 with 34. New Orleans gave up the second most rushing yards in the league last year, behind only Carolina (granted, it was a WIDE gap between the two teams). Not only that, but they also gave up the second-best yards per attempt in 2024, also behind only Carolina. I think Arizona wins this one fairly easily, and Conner should get a lion's share of the carries.

On the opposite side of the field, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed could see a ton of snaps in the Kellen Moore system. Ross Jackson of LouisianaSports.net noted that the Saints ran 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) on the field at a 75% rate. That is insane usage for receivers. There was one game Spencer Rattler played with both Olave and Shaheed in 2024, and Rashid had 7 targets, though he only caught two. Olave had a single target that game before leaving with an injury, but was more than compensated with 14 targets as the primary option for Rattler against the Chargers two weeks later. I’m curious if Moore’s coaching can overcome, or at least improve, Rattler’s struggles from 2024 and make this offense watchable.

🟠 While the Browns aren’t projected to be a successful team overall in 2025, I do think that they will be just fine against the Bengals in Week 1. I still expect Cincy to win, given their offense is elite, but the Browns should be able to put up points on the suspect Bengals. Cincy gave up the fourth most passing touchdowns last year in the NFL, and while last year's stats don’t equal this year's points, they made no additions of note to their secondary in 2025. This means good things for the likes of Joe Flacco, David Njoku, and Jerry Jeudy.

🐆 I get he’s a rookie who plays defense, but let’s not sleep on Travis Hunter this year. Carolina didn’t make a ton of improvements on the defensive side of the ball in 2025. Brian Thomas Jr. should feast even if shadowed by Jaycee Horn, leaving Travis Hunter free to roam. As a DB himself, I’m curious how that knowledge impacts how he goes about running his routes against a secondary corner.

In turn, I also like Trevor Lawrence, who will be featured more than once in this newsletter. The Panthers put up a league-low 16.2% pressure rate last year, and like I mentioned before, they didn’t make any significant upgrades on defense. What’s crazy is that while the Panthers had a historically bad rushing defense last year, they also gave up the most passing touchdowns as well.

🐮 I want to be optimistic about Nick Chubb as a Browns fan. I want to see him do well in Houston. However, I’m struggling to find reasons for optimism. Last year was the first time in his career that he fell below 5 yards per carry. And it wasn’t like he fell to 4.5 YPC or something. No, it was 3.3 YPC! According to Next Gen Stats, he was also the NFL’s second least efficient runner last season. I still think he’s the starter to begin the season, but Dameon Pierce could prove to be a thorn in Chubb’s side.

🐦 I’m scared to death of him, but Kyle Pitts was the overall TE6 and TE2 in PPR formats against the Buccaneers last year. That’s the great part. It’s also great that we’ve had the offseason narrative of QB Michael Penix hanging out with Pitts. But, in Penix’s three starts last year, Pitts was the TE46, 10, and 40. It’s feast or famine. I’m pointing it out because I feel its worthwhile, but I’m hesitant to get sucked into the…Pitts… again. 🕳

🧲 The Dolphins are PFF’s 29th-ranked secondary in 2025, and that could mean Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Michael Pittman get off to a hot start. Downs especially stands to benefit from Daniel Jones throwing the ball. As I mentioned in a previous newsletter, Jones’ primary slot man last year, Wan’Dale Robinson, was fifth in the NFL in targets during Jones’ starts in 2024.

🟡 It looks like Jaylen Warren is starting off 2025 as Pittsburgh’s primary running back, which is great for his fantasy value. New York underwent a coaching change in 2025, with their new HC being the Lions' DC last year. Both the Lions and Jets rushing defenses were about the same in expected points added last season, so I don’t know whether the coaching change is going to shift things much in terms of rushing defense (both were middle of the pack). It is worth noting that Detroit suffered a lot of injuries last year, so that certainly impacted things. We could see the Jets improve, and this not a favorable matchup for Warren, but I expect him to have decent rushing numbers and catch a few dump-offs. ⚫

⛏ I will admit it’s a bit scary after his whole training camp debacle, but starting Jauan Jennings against Seattle doesn’t seem like a bad idea. After Brandon Aiyuk went down for the season and Jennings came back from his own injury, from Weeks 10-17, he was the WR26 in PPG with 14.4. Especially now with Christian McCaffrey dealing with a calf issue, the Niners could opt to throw more to keep the workload light for CMC.

🔥 Calvin Ridley has his work cut out for him against Patrick Surtain this week. Surtain only allowed 0.11 fantasy points per coverage snap, best in the NFL, and he shadowed on 54% of his snaps. His 58.9 passer rating when targeted was second only to Derek Stingley Jr. I’m sitting Ridley where I can this week. 

Meanwhile, I do like Tony Pollard this week. Their rushing defense was among the best in the league, but Denver was top-10 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs in 2024. Pollard could operate as a safety blanket for Cam Ward while the Titans' receiving options on the outside deal with tight coverage.

⚡ Justin Herbert is one of the best QBs in the NFL. But the Chargers amped up their run game with the additions of Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, so I expect them to run more this year when they can. Not only that, but against Kansas City last year, Herbert scored 11 and 13 fantasy points. Even in his lone matchup against them in 2023, he scored fewer than 13 points. This new Kansas City defense seems to have his number, and that might hamper his ceiling in Week 1.

Trevor Lawrence (CIN, HOU), Bryce Young (ARI, ATL), J.J. McCarthy (ATL, CIN)

Kendre Miller (SF, SEA), Rico Dowdle (ARI, ATL)

Tory Horton (PIT, NO), Hunter Renfrow (ARI, ATL), Cedric Tillman (BAL, GB), Dont’e Thornton Jr. (LAC, WAS), Pat Bryant (IND, LAC)

Theo Johnson (DAL, KC)